NY Mets top prospect list is buying way too much into unproven 29-year-old

Triple-A serves two purposes for major league clubs: serving as both the final proving ground for top prospects before their ascension to the big leagues and as a place to house depth that the major league team might need in the event of injury. Usually, these two functions are mutually exclusive, fulfilled by different groups of players, but one New York Mets "prospect" is bridging the gap.

According to FanGraphs, right-hander Justin Hagenman is the Mets' No. 23 prospect, something that seems ludicrous given the fact that the former Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox farmhand will turn 30 on October 7. If the only thing that matters when determining who is and isn't a prospect is maintaining rookie eligibility, then we have to concede that Hagenman fits the bill.

But is he really a top-30 guy? Prospect evaluation isn't an exact science, but typically there's something of a consensus between experts. For example, Jack Wenninger is New York's No. 6 prospect on MLB Pipeline's top-30, whereas he ranks No. 4 on FanGraph's list. Two spots are not a seismic gap in evaluations.

Every once in a while, though, you do see some drastic differences, and Hagenman is the poster child for that. The former 23rd-round pick is conspicuously absent from both MLB Pipeline's and Baseball America's top-30 lists. This all begs the question, what do the folks over at FanGraphs see that the others don't?

FanGraph's inclusion of Justin Hagenman on the Mets' top prospect list will have fans questioning what that even means

To be fair, the Mets believed in Hagenman enough to give him a major league contract ahead of the 2025 season despite his never throwing a big league inning prior to inking the deal. He'd go on to debut in 2025 and show some usefulness, throwing 23.2 innings mostly in relief during his brief major league action.

FanGraphs is high on him due to his control-over-stuff profile, noting, "Good body control, a clean delivery, and a simple arm action help him locate well all over the zone, with better feel for (most of) his secondaries than all but a handful of prospects we’ll write up this year."

We did see that on display, to an extent, last year as he posted a 2% walk rate in the majors, though his 1.52 HR/9 might indicate that he doesn't locate super well within the strike zone, and his marginal stuff gives him less room for error.

FanGraphs pegs his ceiling as a fifth or sixth starter, and therein lies the problem. Forget that Hagenman will miss significant time in 2026 with a fractured rib; even if he were healthy, he'd struggle to crack the Mets' wealth of rotation depth.

At that point, he seems to be a potential long man out of the bullpen at best, but is more than likely just Triple-A fodder. Maybe on another team he'd have some use, but for New York, he isn't really a prospect and instead is just a guy hanging on trying to keep his baseball dream alive.