NY Mets predicted to win NL Pennant because of their rotation sharks, not the aces

For much of the offseason, we were told that the New York Mets were going to have to trade away a starting pitcher to clear the way for an ace at the top. In the process, the thought was that the Mets would then be able to swap one of their mid-rotation arms for something that filled a hole elsewhere on the roster.

The considerable depth made this seem plausible. We dreamt up trades for the likes of Sean Manaea, David Peterson, and Kodai Senga, among others. Some of those deals would have been disastrous. Others may have been fine, but ultimately, David Stearns solved the needs of the club in other ways, and with that, the depth remained intact.

The only arm that was shipped out and could have played a role at some point in 2026 for New York was Brandon Sproat, but in return, the club not only got their front-line starter in Freddy Peralta, but also a versatile and valuable piece in Tobias Myers. Two in, one out, and the depth only grew.

That depth is what led Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required) to boldly predict that the Mets will win the NL Pennant in large part on the strength of their rotation depth.

"With Sean Manaea, Jonah Tong, Tobias Myers, Christian Scott and Jonathan Pintaro, the Mets have the best depth by projected strikeouts minus walks (and ERA, but there are park factors in those). Even if Manaea’s velocity is down and Tong’s spring wasn’t grand, Myers is a young capable veteran and Scott has shown why everyone loved him before surgery," Sarris writes explaining his position.

The Mets rotation depth is an underrated strength in 2026

Sarris points out that a sixth starter usually pitches around 100 innings a year, a not so insignificant chunk. On top of that, the average MLB team runs through roughly 10 starters per season. Last year, the Mets had 12 pitchers make at least three starts or more. Only Clay Holmes and David Peterson topped the 30-start plateau.

You could have made an argument that the team had pretty solid rotation depth in 2025. The prospect trio of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat were all here. Griffin Canning was intended to be a depth arm until injuries forced him into the rotation. Others, like Tylor Megill, were solid in the depth role, too.

That's all true, but the difference now comes at the top. The rotation is set, and instead of having guys like Manaea and Senga lead the way, Stearns has ensured the club has real top-of-the-rotation pitchers at the helm with Peralta and McLean. That makes everything else hit differently.

Now, instead of being projected to lead the rotation, Manaea will work out of the bullpen as he attempts to regain his velocity. Senga goes from a guy you hope could be a No. 1 to a guy who'll be a No. 5, and it will be easier to keep him fresh throughout the season this way. Jonah Tong and Christian Scott are current and former top prospects, respectively, so while neither has accomplished much, the talent is there.

Back to Sarris's prediction for a minute. He didn't say that New York would win the NL East, but rather, the NL Pennant, meaning the club will be the National League representative in the World Series. Clearly, in the postseason, depth starters don't matter as much.

But during the 162-game slog of the regular season, they do, and if they keep the top guys healthy it will pay dividends in October. The worst-case scenario is that there is still an injury to a key guy, but one of these extra arms can step up to fill the void in the playoffs.

Cliches about pitching winning championships and never being able to have too much of it exist for a reason. The Mets have that level of depth, and it's a hidden benefit of how Stearns was able to manage the offseason, filling every hole, without sacrificing this depth. Now, we'll see if it produces the big results we're hoping for.