Twins haven’t proven they won’t make a trade with the NY Mets

Earlier this winter, it seemed likely the Minnesota Twins would be at the center of the offseason trade market. That had fans licking their lips, envisioning an ace like Joe Ryan or even righty Pablo Lopez landing with the New York Mets.

However, in the lead-up to the Winter Meetings, Twins brass led by Derek Falvey, threw cold water on those dreams, stating that Minnesota was not trading their stars, including those two arms and outfielder Byron Buxton, and that he had been given the greenlight to add to the core.

Now, nearly a month after those comments, Minnesota has made just one significant addition, signing first baseman Josh Bell to a one-year deal. Bell has become something of a baseball nomad in recent years, and over the past two seasons has produced a combined 0.0 fWAR. To call that building is a stretch to say the least.

The Twins' insistence that their stars aren't available doesn't take a Mets trade off the table

Despite the Twins' insistence that they are looking to add and not subtract, the reality of their situation doesn't align with their words. The club sold off pieces like relievers Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax and set Carlos Correa and his high-priced contract back to the Houston Astros at the trade deadline, as financial issues consumed the franchise.

The Pohlad family may have gotten an influx of cash to the organization by selling off minority stakes in the team last August, but that doesn't mean they are out of the woods yet. With Bell coming in as their only reinforcement, they risk falling behind in the small-market race known as the American League Central.

The Guardians have been the class of the division for a while now, the Tigers are lurking, the Royals are looking to contend, and even the lowly White Sox made a splash with Munetaka Murakami.

That could cause Minnesota to reevaluate their situation, or could reveal that their affirmations of contention earlier this winter were nothing more than posturing to drive up the price of their most marketable assets.

The Mets line up well here because they have young talent that is both big league ready (or close) as well as intriguing prospects further down in the minor league system. In particular, young arms like Jonah Tong or Brandon Sproat could appeal to the Twins, who have a top-ranked farm system that is much heavier on position player talent.

Ryan would be the ultimate prize, but with two years of team control remaining, we could see him be extremely expensive given the returns that lesser arms like Shane Baz and Mike Burrows received thanks to their years of control.

That will make Pablo Lopez the cheaper arm to acquire, as the $43.5 million he is owed over the next two seasons is a hefty sum for the cash-strapped Twins. Buxton could also be a boom-or-bust solution for the Mets in center field, and with a hair over $45 million owed to him over the next three years, a hypothetical trade for him wouldn't necessarily take New York out of the running to add a free-agent bat like Cody Bellinger to elevate the outfield even further.

All of this is to say, Minnesota has protested too much, and it shouldn't be a surprise if they do an about-face and make a deal. If they do, the Mets would be wise to jump into the fray.