ZiPS projections are unintentionally promising for NY Mets rookie Carson Benge

One way or another, it is a near guarantee that Carson Benge will be a part of the New York Mets outfield; the only question is when. If anything, Juan Soto shifting to left field could help him in his endeavors to win a spot on the opening day roster. The Oklahoma State product has played all over the outfield since turning pro, but played right field the majority of the time in college.

He'll have some competition. Tyrone Taylor will be in the mix, Brett Baty will presumably get the shot to work in right instead of left with this change, and surprise newcomer MJ Melendez will get his opportunity as well.

If you ask the ZiPS projections from FanGraphs, Benge has a good shot at an opening day roster spot, or at least will arrive in Queens shortly after opening day, with the 23-year-old projected to log 116 games. Those projections have him in some interesting company, with his fWAR prediction coming in right next to none other than Mike Trout.

Projections giving Carson Benge the same fWAR total as Mike Trout have drawn an unlikely comparision for the Mets top prospect

Benge is predicted to finish 2026 with 1.5 fWAR, which is a pretty encouraging total for a rookie. Typically, a 1.5 fWAR player is a reasonable starter, one who can be improved upon, but not one that you'd consider to be a black hole on the roster.

Trout is also projected for 1.5 fWAR, a far cry from his 10 fWAR peak, but when it comes to a metric like WAR, there is more than one way to skin a cat.

A 1.5 fWAR player could be a guy who is average to slightly below average in every facet of the game. He could be a guy who doesn't have any one particular skill that truly stands out. On the other hand, a 1.5 fWAR player could be a guy with one well-above-average skill, and one skill that's so far below average that it saps most of his value. On top of that, there are positional value factors to consider.

That's kind of where the difference between Benge and Trout comes into play. The Mets' youngster is projected to slash .246/.326/.399 with 13 homers and a 106 wRC+. Trout is projected to hit better, with a .235/.353/.441 line, 21 homers, and a 119 wRC+.

The difference between the two is primarily that Benge is projected to be a roughly average defensive corner outfielder, while the oft-injured Los Angeles Angels star is expected to serve as a DH the vast majority of the time. The lack of any sort of defensive value hurts him in the fWAR calculation in this case.

The two being projected to produce the same value is by no means a comp for what Benge could be at the big league level, but it is kind of funny that they are positioned right next to each other on the projections leaderboard.