Overlooked Mets prospect could certainly beat Jonah Tong back to MLB

For a while, it was the trio of Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat providing hope for the future of the New York Mets rotation. McLean has been as good as advertised. Sproat is now in Milwaukee and has been up and down so far in 2026. Tong is the one who is the hardest to peg.

We checked in on the Mets' top five pitching prospects, of which Tong is No. 1 (and the club's No. 1 overall prospect), and what we've seen from the 22-year-old hasn't been ideal.

Through eight starts, he has a 4.46 ERA down at Syracuse. Tong has some good, for example, he's striking out hitters at a 33.8% clip. However, that comes with a 13.6% walk rate and 1.49 HR/9. Walks and homers are a quick way to have things unravel quickly, and that's been the story for Tong so far this year.

Meanwhile, the Mets No. 5 prospect, Jack Wenninger, has been dealing in Triple-A and is outshining Tong with a 1.27 ERA over his six starts, leading all starters in Triple-A. As the 24-year-old is rising, it raises the question: has he leapfrogged Tong in the call-up pecking order?

Jack Wenninger's performance could have him pass Jonah Tong by as the next Mets arm called up

Wenninger is starting to get the shine he deserves, but a lot of opinions on him are still colored by the fact that he was a 2023 sixth-round pick. That's led many publications to list him as a potential fourth or fifth starter.

However, his 2025 campaign at Binghamton raised some eyebrows as he posted a 2.92 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate over 135 2/3 innings. For those who were paying attention, that performance began to change the conversation. Combined with the fact that he has a truly special pitch in his splitter, you can see the ceiling rising.

This year, we're seeing him perform even better despite the jump in competition. That isn't to say that he doesn't have flaws that need to be addressed.

Wenninger has seen his walk rate jump up to an uncomfortable 12.4%, which leads one to believe that a blowup is coming to scuff up that shiny ERA. On top of that, luck has been on his side with an 89.9% left on-base rate.

The average left on-base rate is in the mid-70s typically, so to say that Wenninger has been smiled upon by the baseball gods isn't at all off base. However, even accounting for that regressing to the mean, he's likely still performing better than Tong. If he can cut down on the free passes, he'll offset a good portion of that luck regression as well.

At this point, Wenninger is pitching better on the whole than Tong, even if the picture isn't perfect yet. That makes the answer simple: should the Mets have a need in the rotation right now, it's Wenninger and not Tong, who deserves the call. How that continues to play out remains to be seen, but for now, it's the less-heralded arm that looks ready to contribute today.

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