Potential NY Mets free agent target compares to Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka

One of the biggest features of this year's free-agent market is the strong presence of exciting talents coming over from Japan. The New York Mets' needs align nicely with what the best of the NPB has to offer. Munetaka Murakami or Kazuma Okamoto could be exciting Pete Alonso alternatives, but it's starter Tatsuya Imai who could be the biggest prize of them all.

The club needs rotation help in a bad way. That's led insiders like the Athletic's Jim Bowden to consider the Mets as one of the best potential fits for Imai, though that also comes with a hefty, seven-year, $154 million contract prediction.

The question of how skills will translate from the lesser competition present in the NPB to the majors is always a pressing one. Some thrive immediately, like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, while others, like Roki Sasaki, find themselves shellshocked out of the gate. Most fall somewhere in between, but what are some reasonable expectations for Imai once he arrives stateside?

Fangraphs comparisons for Tatsuya Imai should give Mets fans confidence

Fangraphs broke down a list of comparable pitchers based on their overseas performance and how they performed in their first MLB season. The results are encouraging as long as you calibrate your expectations.

The top comps for the 27-year-old hurler are former New York Yankee Masahiro Tanaka and the San Diego Padres' Yu Darvish. Other notable names are Kenta Maeda (during his Dodgers days) and Miles Mikolas.

The median season produced 161 innings pitched, 8.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, a 3.72 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP. The average saw 141 innings, 8.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, a 3.88 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP.

Overall, solid numbers, but not an ace. In fact, none of the pitchers he's most comparable to were ever really aces, with maybe the exception of Tanaka in 2016, and 2013-2014 Yu Darvish. Others on the list show that the landing isn't always a soft one.

One of his comps is Yusei Kikuchi, who posted a 5.46 ERA when he arrived in 2019, and didn't break the 4.00 mark until 2023 and has since settled in as a reliable mid-rotation starter.

Imai is younger than most at 27, and his 1.92 ERA in 2025 will get a lot of attention, but Mets fans will no doubt look at Kodai Senga, who posted a 1.94 ERA in his final NPB season, as a cautionary tale.

Those concerns wouldn't be unfounded. Imai has struggled with command earlier in his career, posting a 5.13 BB/9 in 2022 and a 4.13 mark in 2023, though he has brought it down to more manageable levels the last two seasons with a 3.63 performance in 2024 and a career-best 2.47 this year.

Perhaps the biggest concern should be durability. The three-time NPB All-Star is listed at just five-foot-11, 154 pounds, yet features a mid-90s fastball that he can reach back and run up to 99, in addition to a wipeout slider. Such big stuff coming from such a slight frame is cause for some concern.

Those who are hoping for a true ace like Tarik Skubal will be disappointed by Imai, but his comps give reasonable hope that he could be a solid No. 2 right out of the gate. The biggest immediate question is whether his price tag will exceed his worth in 2026.