NY Mets free agent flier from last year is projected to outhit Marcus Semien

For the New York Mets, the big benefit to acquiring Marcus Semien was taking a large step towards achieving one of the offseason's biggest missions — improving the club's run prevention skills.

Once upon a time, Semien was a potent bat, clubbing a career-high 45 homers in 2021 with the Toronto Blue Jays. While he can still run into the occasional long ball, Semien's overall offensive performance has diminished with age. His 128 wRC+ in 2023 gave way to a pedestrian 101 mark in 2024, and then a below-average 89 wRC+ in 2025.

This might have been okay when the trade first went down, and there was hope that the Mets would supplement Semien with another big move, but now, with Pete Alonso defecting and Jorge Polanco taking his place, the club will need more out of Semien.

The good news is Steamer projections, courtesy of FanGraphs project something of a rebound for Semien, but surprisingly, they have him performing worse than a player the Mets took a flier on last winter.

Steamer projects that Marcus Semien will hit worse in 2026 than Mets' afterthought Jared Young

Per Steamer, Semien is projected to slash .241/.314/.400, which is good for a 103 wRC+. Jared Young, who the Mets imported from the KBO last December, is surprisingly projected to perform slightly better, with a .234/.317/.405/106 wRC+ line.

Young only managed 47 big league plate appearances last season, slashing .186/.234/.488 with an egregious 34% strikeout rate and an unacceptable 4.3% walk rate. Aside from some power, with four of his eight total hits going for home runs, Young was pretty bad last season and is one of the first players on the chopping block should the team need to open a 40-man roster spot.

It's not all doom and gloom, though. The prediction is for Semien to play 150 games, log 675 plate appearances, hit 22 homers, and produce 3.1 fWAR. Young, on the other hand, is only expected to get 119 plate appearances.

The sum of Semien's contributions has the 35-year-old as a solidly above-average player, even if his offensive output is expected to be below where he was at his peak. Jorge Polanco is expected to produce similarly to the player the Mets lost in order to acquire Semien, Brandon Nimmo, in 2026, by the same projection system.

Still, it should be clear that the Mets still need more offensive firepower to make up for the loss of Alonso. There might not be a comparable power bat available, but if the club can find other ways to piece together the performance, then maybe David Stearns' vision will truly come together and create a better overall unit in 2026 than the one that missed the playoffs in 2025.