Steamer projections have Jorge Polanco giving the NY Mets familiar production

To say that the reactions to the New York Mets' signing of Jorge Polanco have been mixed is an understatement. Part of that is understandable. Pete Alonso was a fan favorite, and despite the frigid negotiations, or better said, non-existent negotiations between the two sides, it always felt like the two would find their way back together like star-crossed lovers. After all, that's what happened last year.

On top of that, Alonso's departure comes on the heels of trading away another fan favorite in Brandon Nimmo, leaving fans feeling cold and alienated.

None of this is Polanco's fault, of course. He's not responsible for the decisions that David Stearns has made that feel half-backed and incomplete. In terms of the big picture, the jury is very much still out.

However, what if we're thinking about Polanco in the wrong light? Maybe he's not an Alonso replacement at all. Maybe this is about replacing Nimmo's production. In that regard, the projections like the move.

Steamer projections peg Jorge Polanco as a perfect Brandon Nimmo replacement in the Mets' lineup

Last season, Nimmo slashed .262/.324/.436 with 25 homers, which was good for a 114 wRC+. Meanwhile, out in Seattle, Polanco put up a .265/.326/.495 line with 26 homers, which worked out to a 132 wRC+ performance.

The contact and on-base numbers were almost identical, but despite only one more homer, Polanco still provided more thump than Nimmo. Of course, 2025 was something of a rebound for Polanco, who struggled to the tune of a 93 wRC+ in 2024, while Nimmo had been a bit more consistent, but has taken a step back from his peak years from 2020 to 2023.

The past informs the present, and what we really care about is what we can expect from these two moving forward. Steamer can help us out here, and a close look shows that Polanco is a dead ringer for what the Mets lost in Nimmo.

*As a note, Steamer only projects Polanco to play 106 games, while it is pegging Nimmo for 142 contests. Regardless, the numbers are eerily similar.

This supports the idea that Polanco isn't here to replace Alonso, even if first base ends up being his everyday position. Instead, he's being brought in to replace the production the Mets lost by trading Nimmo.

In that light, the move seems less like a panic pivot after Alonso bolted to Baltimore, and more like a well-intentioned part of the plan. Of course, there's still a lot left untied, but if Stearns can fill the remaining holes adequately, there should be no reason why the Mets can't go into 2026 stronger than they were in 2025.