1 free agent flier the NY Mets should have signed instead of Griffin Canning

The New York Mets made a head-scratching signing late last night, inking a deal with starting pitcher Griffin Canning to the tune of one year for $4.25 million. While the logic seems shaky, one could certainly make a claim that Canning and free agents of his ilk are worse than depth starters like Tylor Megill, Jose Butto, and Paul Blackburn who already reside on the roster, there was at least one option on the free-agent market that made more sense.

The prerequisites that led to the Mets signing Canning seem to be one-time promise (Canning was once a top prospect for the Los Angeles Angels, under 30 years old, and a cheap option who might be unlocked by Jeremy Hefner and the Mets' pitching lab.

With those criteria in mind, meet Brad Keller. Keller, 29, checks the same boxes as Canning but provides the chance to have some actual upside which is harder to see with Canning.

Brad Keller would've been the better choice for the NY Mets

Keller might not have ever had the same prospect luster as Canning once did, but in terms of promise, his is more impactful since it comes on the basis of actual Major League performance.

Canning has one season in his career, the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign with an ERA under 4.00 barely meeting that threshold with a 3.99 mark that year. He's never posted a FIP under 4.00, owning a career 4.78 number which is also identical to his career 4.78 ERA. He's also posted an ERA over 5.00 in two of the last three seasons.

Keller, like Canning, hasn't had much recent success. Last season, he posted a 5.44 ERA and 5.68 FIP in 41.1 innings and started just two games. He hasn't had an ERA under 4.00 since 2020. However, his first three seasons in the Majors were encouraging.

In 2018 with the Kansas City Royals, Keller made 20 starts and 21 relief appearances while posting an ERA of 3.08 and a FIP of 3.55 over 140.1 innings. The following year saw him move to the rotation full-time, pitching to a 4.19 ERA and 4.35 FIP while logging 165.1 innings. Finally, in 2020, he pitched to a 2.47 ERA and 3.43 FIP while making nine starts.

While it's been years since he reached that level of production, he has one elite skill that might allow for a return to form. Keller owns a career groundball rate of 51.6% and has only dipped below the 50% mark once in his career (a still-healthy 47.8% number in 2021).

Canning, on the other hand, doesn't induce ground balls often with a 39.5% rate for his career, while also lacking elite strikeout stuff. Keller typically generates even fewer strikeouts, however his penchant for keeping the ball on the ground can work to get outs and limit damage on a more consistent basis.

Keller checks the box of past promise as indicated by the success he had early on in his career. He's the right age at under 30. He would be cheap, and with such a high groundball rate already he has a baseline skill that the Mets might have been better able to build off of. Lastly, he has more experience coming out of the bullpen than Canning making him a more versatile option as well.

Time will tell if Canning was the right call, but at face value, it seems like going after Keller instead would have been the better option if it was really necessary to shop in this tier in the first place.