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3 Mets who need to have a better month in May
A very up-and-down April for the New York Mets concluded with back-to-back rainouts over the weekend. Some highlights of the month included Pete Alonso’s 10 homers and the dominant return of Joey Lucchesi.
On the flip side, let’s take a look at three Mets who struggled in April and need to be better in May.
1) Daniel Vogelbach needs to provide the Mets with more power in May
Vogelbach leaves April with just three extra-base hits - two doubles, one home run, and a slugging percentage of just .375. Simply put, that’s not enough to be the everyday DH.
Vogey hit 18 homers and 19 doubles last year, the vast majority of those coming in the first half in Pittsburgh. His best power season was in Seattle in 2019 when he slugged 30 homers and 17 doubles. He’s capable of hitting for more power, we just need to see it happen. His xSLG on baseball savant is in just the 15th percentile, so there may not be much improvement coming. His hard hit rate is in the 68th percentile, and his barrel rate is in the 57th percentile.
Briefly, he deserves recognition for his command of the strike zone. He had a .417 on-base percentage in May, and he walked (12) nearly as many times as he struck out (14). His walk rate is in the 98th percentile and his chase rate is in the 90th percentile. Honestly, he can sacrifice a little bit of discipline if it means hitting for more power. There are a few Mets with good on-base skills, but only two established guys (the aforementioned Alonso and Francisco Lindor) have more power than Vogelbach.
2) Mark Canha didn’t really provide any offensive value to the Mets in April
Canha left May with a .224/.310/.365/.675 slashline. His walk rate is actually slightly up from last year (8.9% last year, 10% so far this year), but he’s struggled to hit for contact.
In Spring Training we heard that Canha was trying to hit for more power. This could be the source of his struggles. He obviously hasn’t hit for more power, with just two homers. His strikeout rate is also up a little (from 17.9% last year to 19% so far this year).
A quick look at his Baseball Savant page shows that his discipline numbers are similar to his usual numbers, so no issues there. His batted ball metrics are all down, with his barrel rate in the 45th percentile, his xSLG in the 41st percentile, his xwOBA in the 37th percentile, his average exit velocity in the 32nd percentile, his hard hit rate in the 21st percentile, and his xBA in the 18th percentile.
Some people - including myself - have wondered that if Canha’s struggles continue, could Jeff McNeil be moved to the left field everyday and could Ronny Mauricio be called up to play second? I think that’s definitely a possibility, and an enticing one at that. I hope Canha turns it around, but the clock is ticking for him to do so with Mauricio ready to get the call.
3) Max Scherzer had a very strange April for the Mets
On the rosin-smothered surface, Max’s numbers don’t look bad. His 3.72 ERA is higher than you’d expect, but that’s solid. 17 strikeouts in 19 innings is fine, but not up to his standards either.
If you look a little deeper, you’ll see causes for concern. His HR/9 has basically doubled from last year (0.8 in 2022, 1.9 in April), his BB/9 is nearly triple (1.5 in 2022, 4.2 in April), and as mentioned above, his K/9 is down from 10.7 last year to 7.9 so far this year. Naturally, his K/BB ratio is also down from 7.21 to 1.89. The average velocity on most of his pitchers is also down almost a full mile per hour.
His Savant page isn’t pretty either. His hard hit rate and xwOBA are in the 48th percentile, his strikeout rate is in the 46th percentile, his xSLG is in the 37th percentile, his walk rate and average exit velocity are in the 25th percentile, and his barrel rate is i the 19th percentile. To summarize, opponents are hitting the crap out of the ball when it’s in the zone and they’re laying off of pitches when Scherzer misses.
As if all that wasn’t worrying enough, Scherzer was ejected from his last start in LA and suspended 10 games in a ridiculous ruling by Phil Cuzzi and MLB. He is due back this week and will likely pitch against a depleted Detroit Tigers team, so that’s a good opportunity to turn things around.
Next. 1 early red flag Mets fans should be concerned about. dark