Phillies secure the inevitable, but there's a huge silver lining for the Mets

With a magic number of 1 and two full weeks of action yet to play heading into this week, it was inevitable that the Philadelphia Phillies would eventually clinch the NL East, and that's exactly what happened in extra innings against the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday night.

Their 6-5 victory took them to 90-61, officially securing them their second consecutive division crown. But that was a mere formality at this point, and New York Mets fans, like the rest of the MLB fanbase, all saw it coming.

Even if the Mets hadn't gotten swept at Citizens Bank Park a week ago, they've done enough losing elsewhere that the Phillies' lead, even after dropping to four following the Mets' own sweep of their Pennsylvania rivals at Citi Field a couple weeks ago, was not just going to evaporate.

But history shows that this might not be a bad thing for the Mets.

Of course, the Mets still have to get into the playoffs themselves. Pete Alonso's walk-off home run to end their season-long eight-game skid against the Texas Rangers on Sunday is certainly a step in the right direction, but they'll need more than that to stay on top of what is now a four-team race for the third and final NL wild card spot.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (76-75) have snuck up into the top spot below the cut line, 1.5 games behind the Mets (77-73), with the Cincinnati Reds (75-75) and San Francisco Giants (75-75) lurking just 0.5 game behind the D-backs.

All four teams are within two games with just under two weeks to play, meaning it's still truly up in the air.

Should the Mets manage to hang onto the No. 6 seed that they've done everything they can possibly do to give away in recent weeks, the modern playoff format suggests that they may actually be in a favorable position.

Modern MLB playoff format has not been kind to NL East champions

In each of the three postseasons that have been contested since the playoffs expanded to include six teams in each league, the NL East champion has been one-and-done, and on every occasion, the elimination has come at the hands of an NL East wild card team.

In 2022, the No. 6 seed Phillies knocked out the No. 2 seed Atlanta Braves in the NLDS. In 2023, the No. 4 seed Phillies knocked out the No. 1 seed Braves in the same round. Then in 2024, Francisco Lindor's grand slam sent the No. 6 seed Mets to the NLCS over the No. 2 seed Phillies.

Here it is, by the way – just in case you forgot to watch it today.

Since that day, Phillies fans have longed for the moment they can finally erase the infinite loop of "My Girl" from their heads, and many believe that this could be the year they can win their first World Series since 2008.

But since 2022, no No. 2 seed or No. 3 seed has even won a single NL playoff series. On two of the three occasions, the No. 6 seed has gone to the World Series, and on all three – Philadelphia in 2022, Arizona in 2023, and New York in 2024 – the No. 6 seed has gone to the NLCS by beating both the No. 2 and the No. 3.

Of course, Philadelphia is still only 1.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for the No. 1 seed. But even the No. 1 seeds haven't fared well in the NL playoffs, with last year's Dodgers becoming the first to win a series under the new format.

All in all, that's eight out of nine NL division winners that have failed to advance – at all – in three years with the six-team bracket.

Homefield advantage vs. first-round bye disadvantage

We all know about the homefield advantage both Citizens Bank Park and Citi Field provide; the Mets went 6-0 at home and 1-6 on the road against Philadelphia this year. We're obviously not saying "advantage Mets" if the Mets' road runs through Philadelphia, though we'll again point out that it did last year.

But the fact is, for whatever reason, the NL teams that have had first-round byes straight to the NLDS, which the Phillies are poised to secure for the second year in a row in the coming days, have struggled.

And if that trend continues, don't count out the Mets just yet.

While we can't overlook the team's second-half collapse, which has actually resembled more of a complete disintegration, the "hot and cold" element of any playoff team can be a curse or a blessing come October.

Of New York's 49 losses since June 12, 22 have come within three losing streaks. That's over 30% of their loss tally for the entire season.

In other words, when they're not completely ice cold, they're still a very good baseball team. And if they can avoid another frozen spell, provided they do actually manage to qualify for the playoffs, you never know what might happen.

That said, we do need to be realistic about our expectations. This year's team seems almost like the polar opposite of last year's as far as momentum goes. Last year's team started 24-35 and ended up 89-73. This year's team started 45-24 and can only end up 89-73 if they somehow manage to conclude the season on a 13-game winning streak.

Still, not winning the NL East is not the end of the world. The road may not run through Queens, but if history is any indicator, the No. 6 seed is exactly where the Mets want to be.

Let's just hope they stay there.