NL Wild Card Standings: Diamondbacks challenging the NY Mets, maybe not for long

It’s crunch time for the New York Mets and I don’t mean they need to eat their cereal. After Monday’s win over the Texas Rangers, they clung to their lead for the last NL Wild Card spot. Luckily for us, the San Francisco Giants lost and the lead became 1.5 games.

We’re both scoreboard watching and schedule gazing. Equally as important is checking out how good the other NL Wild Card contenders’ opponents are or aren’t. The Arizona Diamondbacks have quietly crept to within 2 games of the Mets with a 75-75 record. Should we worry? Not if you believe in the strength of schedule.

Last year’s Diamondbacks fell shy of a playoff berth via tie-breaker to the Mets. Each club won 89 games but because the Mets took the season series, New York was the team of destiny. This season doesn’t look like it’ll go the same way considering the Diamondbacks have nothing but tough opponents left and two teams ahead of them.

If the Diamondbacks can catch the Mets with how tough their last two weeks are, they deserve a championship

No team has a tougher remaining schedule than the Diamondbacks. They play the Los Angeles Dodgers for four, Philadelphia Phillies for three, San Diego Padres for three, and the Giants for a trio of games. The .552 winning percentage those four clubs have combined for is the highest of any MLB club.

Meanwhile, the Mets are about average with the 14th toughest. They will play the Cubs and Padres in a pair of series that could help determine who the Mets actually face in the playoffs (rolling over on the Padres and sweeping the Cubs would be a strange way to go). We’ll also get to see the Mets against the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals who’ll look to take on the role of spoiler.

It gets tough for the Mets when we see the Giants with a perceived softer schedule. The combined .464 winning percentage is significantly lower than the .500 record the Mets go up against. Their schedule includes the Dodgers for four plus the Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, and St. Louis Cardinals for three each.

If every team simply plays to the logic of splitting or losing series to the good teams while winning the ones against the bad clubs, the Giants have 7 wins left to add bringing them up to 82. By this logic, the Mets get to 83. The lowly Diamondbacks with a gauntlet in front of them reach 79.

That’s not how things work, though. One of these teams will sweep a team with a better record. Someone will lose a heartbreaker to an inferior opponent. The Mets still have the edge, if ever so slightly. Good thing we finish against the Marlins, right? Oh boy…

It really IS going to come down to the Mets needing their tie-breaker over the Giants, isn't it?