Phillies can do the Mets a huge favor, and they might end up regretting it

The New York Mets (78-74) are down to their final 10 games of the 2025 MLB regular season, and they currently hold a narrow 1.5-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks (77-76) for the third and final NL Wild Card spot. The Cincinnati Reds (76-76) and San Francisco Giants (76-76) are both lurking just two games below the playoff cut line themselves.

New York is set to wrap up a three-game series with the San Diego Padres (83-69) on Thursday afternoon. While the Reds and Giants are set to begin four-game series against the Chicago Cubs (88-64) and the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (85-67), respectively, the Diamondbacks have off until Friday.

That's when they're scheduled to kick off a three-game weekend series against the recently crowned NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies (91-62) at Chase Field.

Phillies can do the Mets a huge favor

On paper, the D-backs have the most challenging remaining schedule of the four teams within two games of the NL's No. 6 seed. That bodes well for the Mets when you consider how Arizona has snuck up on the field and emerged as New York's closest competitor, thanks to three separate four-game winning streaks over the past three weeks.

Additionally, Arizona currently has the tiebreaker advantage over New York, though that does remain subject to change over the course of the next week and a half.

It goes without saying that Mets fans should never root for the Phillies. But as a means to an end, is it too much to ask for a sweep, or at least a series win, over the Diamondbacks this weekend?

The Phillies are currently sitting in the No. 2 seed, 2.5 games behind the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers for the top spot and 5.5 games ahead of the Dodgers for the second first-round bye.

Given the well-known homefield advantage of Citizens Bank Park, where the Phillies own an MLB-best 51-24 home record (and 6-1 against the Mets) this season, you better believe Philadelphia still wants the No. 1 seed.

They're not just going to roll over now that they've confirmed the inevitable by securing a second consecutive NL East title (and likely soon a first-round bye).

Could Philadelphia regret indirectly assisting New York?

We already covered at length how the NL East champion, in all three years of the modern six-team format (2022 to present), has been one-and-done in the postseason, and for whatever it's worth, on all three occasions, their elimination has come after a first-round bye – and at the hands of an NL East Wild Card team.

On all three occasions, the Wild Card team stole a road win before going 2-0 at home to clinch in four games.

In 2024, it was the No. 6 seed Mets knocking out the No. 2 Phillies in the NLDS, after the Phillies eliminated the division champion Atlanta Braves in the NLDS in both 2022 and 2023.

Should the Phillies remain at No. 2, they'd play the winner of the No. 3 seed vs. No. 6 seed Wild Card matchup in the NLDS. And yes, three times out of three under the modern playoff format, the No. 6 seed has beaten both the No. 3 seed in the Wild Card series and the No. 2 seed in the NLDS en route to the NLCS.

Philadelphia did it in 2022, Arizona did it in 2023, and New York did it in 2024, with Philadelphia and Arizona both going on to the World Series as No. 6 seeds. The Mets' run, buoyed by Francisco Lindor's unforgettable NLDS grand slam, ended against the eventual World Series champion Dodgers in the NLCS.

Bottom line: if the Phillies take care of business against the Diamondbacks this weekend, the Mets' path to the No. 6 seed becomes a lot more straightforward, and that could very well set New York up with a shot at repeating last year's NLDS upset, provided they do indeed make the playoffs and manage to win a best-of-three Wild Card series, presumably against L.A.

Easier said than done, of course, but don't believe anybody who tells you they're not "scoreboard watching" as the regular season winds down and the playoff picture takes shape.