A valuable lesson the NY Mets shouldn't ignore after clobbering the Phillies

The New York Mets, locked in a fierce battle for a playoff spot, have been in a peculiar position with their starting pitching rotation all season. While the offense has been a dynamic force lately, a lack of reliable length and consistency from the starting staff has continuously put pressure on the bullpen. The Mets' conservative approach to pitching management, which has been under scrutiny all year, was never more apparent than in a crucial series opener against their heated rivals, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Against a team that can seemingly hit the cover off the ball, the Mets made a decision that seemed counterintuitive, starting Kodai Senga on regular rest for the first time since 2023. Senga, who spent his career in Japan's NPB where pitchers work on a six-day rest schedule, has never been accustomed to pitching on five days' rest. This choice, made in the midst of a playoff race, seemed to expose a weakness in Senga’s format and revealed a broader lesson the Mets must learn about their pitching philosophy if they hope to succeed.

A ghost of a performance

Despite the Mets' offense managing to secure a victory, Senga's performance was far from the one they needed. He struggled through four-plus innings, allowing three earned runs on six hits, notching just four strikeouts, and issuing nearly as many walks. His command was shaky from the start, a common issue for him this season. His fastball, in particular, was a liability. According to Statcast data from this season, his average four-seam fastball velocity has dropped from his 2023 peak, and hitters are punishing the pitch with a high average exit velocity. As the second half of the season has progressed, his ERA has also trended in the wrong direction, according to Fangraphs, proving that his struggles are not just a one-game anomaly.

The choice to push Senga outside his comfort zone proved to be a critical miscalculation. It's a clear indication that a one-size-fits-all approach to starting pitching isn't working for Senga or the Mets' playoff aspirations. The team must stop being conservative and start being aggressive with their pitching management, especially with a bullpen that is now short-handed after the news that high-leverage reliever Reed Garrett was placed on the 15-day IL with right elbow inflammation.

The Mets can no longer afford to be a team that only reacts to injuries or struggles. They need to proactively change their approach. The solution is to adopt a six-pitcher rotation again. This model would allow pitchers like Senga to return to the weekly rest he's thrived on, increasing his efficiency and consistency while keeping the rest of the staff fresh.

This shift would also create opportunities for the team's promising minor league prospects. With the success of Nolan McLean since his recall to the majors, it's clear the Mets have talented arms ready for the big stage. Highly touted prospects like Jonah Tong, who recently turned in an eye-popping start in Triple-A, and Brandon Sproat, who has been working out of the bullpen in a potential foreshadowing of a new role, are a creative, bold move waiting to happen. The Mets must learn their lesson from Senga's outing and make the move to a six-man rotation a priority if they truly want to compete for a championship.