NL Wild Card standings: 1 edge the NY Mets had on the Reds is evaporating

The New York Mets began the 2025 season with a roar, establishing themselves as a dominant force in the National League East and putting the rest of the league on notice. After a blistering start that saw them lead the division for a significant portion of the first half, the team appeared poised for a deep postseason run. However, the second half of the season has told a much different, more concerning story for the Flushing faithful.

As of late August, the Mets' record has declined, a significant drop-off from their early-season pace. A once-commanding lead has dwindled, and their grip on a Wild Card spot has become tenuous. The primary culprit for this second-half collapse has been a noticeable decline in pitching performance. This has not only cost the Mets games but has also allowed other contenders, most notably the Cincinnati Reds, to close the gap.

A narrowing path to the postseason

The Mets' failure to win games against a softer schedule has brought the NL Wild Card race to a near-dead heat, not just in the standings, but in the level of difficulty both teams face down the stretch. According to recent data, the New York Mets now have a remaining strength of schedule (SOS) of .523. This means their final opponents have a combined winning percentage of over .500, a challenging but not insurmountable task.

However, the Cincinnati Reds, a team the Mets were counting on to face a much more brutal final stretch, have not seen their schedule advantage grow as anticipated. The Reds' remaining schedule strength is rated at a punishing .532, which is still more difficult than New York’s but the margin is far smaller than it had been. What was once a clear scheduling advantage for the Mets has become a mere statistical footnote, and a wasted opportunity.

The Mets' missed chance is a stark reminder of the unforgiving nature of a playoff race. By failing to take care of business when their schedule was most favorable, they have allowed the Reds to stay within striking distance and, more importantly, have forced themselves into a high-pressure, coin-flip scenario for the final few weeks of the season. The difference in schedule difficulty is no longer enough to create separation; it's just a slight lean in their favor.

Heading into the final stretch, the Mets are now facing a reality where their destiny is no longer determined by a scheduling advantage, but by their ability to simply outplay a team that has already proven it can hang with them. The Mets' playoff aspirations now hang on their ability to perform under pressure without the safety net of an easier path, and that is a direct result of their failure to seize the moment when they had it.