Upcoming Braves free agent is a realistic NY Mets target, here's his biggest problem

One of the silver linings of the New York Mets' 2026 season was the development of the club's young starting pitchers. Nolan McLean met and exceeded all expectations as he authored a Rookie of the Year-caliber season. Christian Scott finally began to fulfill his potential. Zac Thornton was also a pleasant surprise.

That young trio is a nice start, but the Mets will need more in the rotation. Veteran leadership is important, and while Tarik Skubal is the ultmiate prize this offseason, but regardless of whether or not New York pursues the left-handed ace, adding another competent veteran to the rotation is a must.

One name that has been bandied about is current Atlanta Braves starter Tyler Mahle. Not only would it be wonderful to steal away a quality arm from a division rival, but Mahle has at times put together some serious high-end production. As a back-of-the-rotation veteran, he would have more upside than most.

The 31-year-old right-hander showed on during the NL Wild Card Series, throwing seven innings of one-run ball in Game 2 of the series for the Braves against the Philadelphia Phillies. He posted a 3.99 ERA this season, befitting of a high-end No. 4 or No. 5 starter, but he's also coming off a 2.18 ERA performance in 2025.

Performance-wise, he seems like a perfect fit. He signed just a one-year, $10 million deal with the San Francisco Giants last offseason and made his way to Atlanta at the trade deadline during San Francisco's sell-off. He likely won't make much more than that this offseason, but that's because of the major downside that he comes with.

Signing Tyler Mahle would be a continuation of the Mets' risky path

Mahle made 27 starts and logged 149 innings this season, which sounds solid until you look closer at his history. Both the starts and innings numbers were his highest since 2021 when he took the ball 33 times and tossed 180 frames. The previous four seasons were a very different beast.

Mahle managed 16 starts and 86 2/3 innings in 2025. He barely pitched in 2024 (three starts, 12 2/3 innings) and 2023 (five starts, 25 2/3 innings). 2022 was better, but he was still limited to 23 starts and 120 2/3 innings. Injuries have been the major reason for all the missed time.

Mahle dealt with a hamstring injury and an abdominal injury this season. His missed time in 2025 was due to right shoulder fatigue from a stress reaction. The massive swaths of missed time in 2023 and 2024 were due to Tommy John surgery. He also dealt with a variety of bumps and bruises during the early part of his career.

One of David Stearns' major mistakes has been relying on injury-prone players, with Jorge Polanco and Luis Robert Jr. serving a key examples from this year's failed campaign. It's something that will continue to doom the Mets if the embattled executive doesn't change his philosophy.

That doesn't mean that New York should take Mahle off the board entirely. There's still some value to having a crafty veteran who knows how to get outs and can potentially punch above his weight. But signing Mahle would require the Mets to bring in another rotation-caliber starter who can work out of the bullpen and step into the rotation if and when the need arises.

That's all well and good, but at a certain point roster spots are limited and the team might be better off finding a more durable solution, even if the upside is a tad lower just to preserve roster flexibility. A lot of this will depend on how the market shakes out, and the only true mistake would be relying on Mahle without a Plan B.

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