MLB comp for Tatsuya Imai tells us exactly why the NY Mets didn’t sign him

A three-year deal worth $54 million with incentives that could raise it to $63 million…why weren’t the New York Mets all over Tatsuya Imai? The Japanese righty will join the Houston Astros for at least a year. Every season includes an opt out, making him an inexpensive buy for the Astros who were looking for a more affordable starting pitcher option in lieu of Framber Valdez.

The contract and Imai’s age helped make him an ideal match for the Mets. Even with the risk of an opt out, it didn’t come with the same draft pick penalties that signing a qualifying offer rejector would have so it’s not the worst thing if he was to jump after one year.

Yakyu Cosmopolitan has provided fans with some of the best coverage all season on players like Imai coming over from Japan. And just seeing the MLB comp for Imai, we understand why the Mets weren’t so eager to sign him to the deal the Astros did.

The Mets would have been moving laterally with a Tatsuya Imai signing

If Imai is Kodai Senga, a player the Mets could very well end up trading, it doesn’t really do much to improve their chances in 2026 by adding him. The players are comparable, but not completely alike. Senga is older and with the injuries he has faced over the last two seasons, not exactly in the best standing with the Mets.

Yet to find a suitor for Senga, it’s still possible the Mets view him well enough to hold on. He is getting paid a little less in 2026 than Imai will receive. From a baseball perspective and not really looking at the financial investment, we can find other reasons as to why Imai was not pursued harder by New York.

Take Imai’s statistical projections for 2026. They match way too closely to another Mets pitcher, Sean Manaea. Far more different styles of pitchers than Imai and Senga, one could take this as Imai either being the best of a Senga-Manaea hybrid or the worst.

It’s always a little disappointing when a free agent signs for far less than expected and ends up with another team and your club doesn't seem to even throw a punch. Imai going to the Astros might have a bigger consequence for the Mets. Senga would have been a theoretical trade fit for them.