Underwhelming Tatsuya Imai stat projections for 2026 match another NY Mets player

Tatsuya Imai is one of MLB’s most intriguing free agents and one with a deadline coming this Friday. An ideal fit for the New York Mets for several reasons, the benefit of choosing him over several of the starting pitcher alternatives comes down to the lack of qualifying offer penalty and the smaller concerns over him possibly aging out over the course of a long contract.

Sign Framber Valdez and you’re losing two draft picks and $1 million in international bonus slot money while also bringing in a guy who’s going to finish off even a shorter contract in his mid-30s. Imai is no sure thing and the projected steamer statistics for him in 2026 might be enough for the Mets to look elsewhere.

Steamer is projecting Tatsuya Imai to have a similar season as Sean Manaea

FanGraphs’ steamer projections don’t shine kindly onto Imai. At 1.8 fWAR, he’s an exact match for fellow Mets starter Sean Manaea.

The pair project to throw around the same number of innings, just under 150, and Manaea’s 4.02 ERA beats out the 4.29 from Imai. Of course, these are just projections. There’s as much chance they’re massively wrong in either direction as they are to be accurate.

The Mets paid $25 million per year for Manaea only to see year one go up in smoke. He missed about half the year and was ineffective when he returned. That large contract only one-third complete is one of the reasons why the Mets may have hesitation toward throwing money at other free agent starters. With Imai projected to be the same, and maybe even worse, it doesn’t make much sense to make him an offseason priority.

If statistical projections were 100% accurate, the Mets already made a mistake by not signing Foster Griffin whose 2.1 fWAR and 3.92 ERA are even better than what they say about Imai. Griffin got $5.5 million from the Washington Nationals with more money available through incentives.

Imai doesn’t appear to be a priority for the Mets. They seem destined to trade for their starting pitcher upgrade while maybe hoping someone else falls into their lap. Imai would still be a good buy because of his age and how beneficial it would be to add more than one starter to the staff. So far, the Mets have been unable to subtract from the rotation. With Imai’s deadline to sign looming, it doesn’t quite feel like he’ll end up calling Queens home. If matching Manaea is all he’ll do, we can’t blame them.