If you believe in stat projections, NY Mets already have a Kazuma Okamoto equivalent

Why did the New York Mets pass on Tatsuya Imai? Well, a lot of reasons.

They reportedly didn’t see him as an impactful starter. We can understand exactly how because his 2026 stat projections are measured closely to Sean Manaea and the MLB comparison for him is Kodai Senga.

Kazuma Okamoto has something in common with Imai. If the Mets believe Imai was just going to be another Senga or Manaea, the 2026 stat projections for Okamoto could have been a reason to steer clear. After all, seeing a 110 wRC+ for Okamoto and 115 wRC+ for Mark VIentos, can we blame them?

Kazuma Okamoto isn’t projected to be any better than Mark Vientos in 2026

Projections are never fully accurate. Okamoto is a bit of a mystery. So is Vientos.

Coming over from Japan could mean extremes for Okamoto. The adjustment to higher velocity pitching on a more regular basis seems to be one of the common concerns. Vientos, in different ways, is a bit of a mystery for the Mets in 2026.

A monstrous 2024 performance followed by a much lesser one in 2025 has him feeling like an ill-fit. However, at a much lower cost and a few years younger, we can understand the lack of Okamoto interest if this is indeed an accurate prophecy.

FanGraphs has Vientos hitting 25 home runs vs. Okamoto’s 18 while driving in 74 versus the newest member of the Toronto Blue Jays’ 55. They’re an exact match at 1.6 fWAR. Some of this comes from a higher expected defensive output from Okamoto. Even so, he’s still rated at -3.5. Vientos is at -10.2.

We can call it relatively even between these two. Okamoto has hit well in Japan, sometimes considered a talent level equivalent of the non-existent Four-A. Vientos has dominated Triple-A and would seem to do well in a Four-A level if it was ever real.

Seeing another free agent sign elsewhere, even if many of his numbers are projected to match an existing Mets player, will do little to convince those who wanted Okamoto signed by David Stearns to let this one rest easy. The fact is, the Mets have let a lot good fits for their team land elsewhere without so much as a pursuit.

The differences between Vientos and Okamoto in their respective major league levels are pretty significant. Depending on how Okamoto translates will tell us for sure if this was a Mets miss or not.