This stat proves the NY Mets should enjoy the Brett Baty hot streak while they can

Brett Baty has emerged as an offensive revelation for the New York Mets after his recent call-up from Triple-A, a stark contrast to the struggles that plagued his early big-league career. Once touted as one of baseball's top prospects, Baty failed to find consistent hitting at the highest level, registering a batting average no higher than .229 and a slugging percentage topping out at .327 in his first two years.

However, the 2025 season has witnessed a significant transformation in Baty's offensive production. He boasts a slugging percentage of around .500 and has already surpassed his 2024 home run total with 40% fewer at-bats. This marked improvement isn't just a fluke; underlying metrics suggest a genuine change in his approach at the plate. Yet, for every positive indicator, there are others that hint at a potential regression.

The looming regression

So far this season, Baty has showcased a commendable level of overall production on both sides of the ball. His defense at third base has been solid, and his bat, which always promised power in the minor leagues, has finally arrived. After a disappointing start to the year, even after a promising spring training, his recent big-league stint has revealed a different offensive identity.

Baty is now hitting the ball with the highest hard-hit contact and exit velocity of his career, while continuing to lift the ball effectively. This change in launch angle is a critical factor in his current success.

Historically, Baty's offensive output was hampered by a high propensity for ground balls, consistently exceeding 50% of his batted balls. In 2025, however, he has demonstrably reduced this metric by more than 10 percentage points, allowing him to tap into his raw power.

However, despite these encouraging signs, his current hitting approach continues to exhibit worrying weaknesses that, if left uncorrected, could significantly hinder his production moving forward and lead to a notable regression. The most concerning stat right now is Baty's career-low walk percentage, which is directly attributable to a high chase rate and an increased swing-and-miss rate.

This lack of plate discipline is a red flag. The increase in his blank swings leads to a decreased ability to put the ball in play, and consequently, portends worse results in the future. No matter how hard Brett Baty hits the ball when he does make contact, if he doesn't improve his discipline and consistently make contact within the strike zone, he simply won't be able to sustain the impressive results he's currently showing. While the Mets and their fans should undoubtedly savor this current hot streak, a deeper look at his underlying plate discipline suggests that this offensive surge may be a fleeting moment if adjustments aren't made.

The Mets have a promising young talent in Brett Baty, and his recent performance is a testament to his potential. However, the advanced metrics highlight a critical area for development. For Baty to truly solidify his place as a long-term offensive force, he must refine his plate approach, reduce his chase rate, and improve his overall contact skills. Until then, Mets fans should enjoy the fireworks while they last, as history suggests a more challenging road ahead if these fundamental weaknesses persist.