NY Mets signing of Frankie Montas puts added pressure to sign this free agent

The New York Mets took the first step in trying to rebuild their starting rotation by signing soon-to-be 32-year-old Frankie Montas to a two-year $34 million dollar deal. On face value, a $17 million average annual value for a pitcher coming off a season in which he posted a 4.84 ERA seems like a pretty significant overpay.

The Mets are again trying a strategy that worked for them so well last year with Sean Manaea and Luis Severino – bringing in talented reclamation projects hoping to score big. Montas fits that bill to a tee. From 2021 to 2022, the big right-hander looked like a pitcher on the rise posting ERAs of 3.37 and 4.05 respectively.

He missed bats at a solid rate averaging about a strikeout per inning over those two years while also generating a heavy dose of ground balls. Unfortunately for Montas, a shoulder injury derailed nearly his entire 2023 campaign, and he struggled to re-establish himself in 2024.

It wasn't just a case of bad luck either. Montas's 2024 campaign also featured a 4.71 FIP suggesting that his performance wasn't merely a by-product of bad luck. His ground ball rate declined to 41.6% while his home run rate soared to a 1.43 HR/9 mark. For a pitcher who relies on a power-sinker with mid-90s velocity that's a bad look.

Again, the Mets have had luck with these types of projects before, but they can't count on lighting striking twice.

Montas doesn't address the two biggest needs in the NY Mets rotation

The Mets have two clear needs in the rotation. The first is a true ace to lead the rotation. The second is durability. Even at his peak, Montas wasn't ever thought of as a true top-of-the-rotation starter, and despite his 150.2 innings pitched last year, it was just the second time in his nine-year career that he's topped the 150-innings pitched threshold.

With all that said, and the questions about Montas being healthy and effective going forward, the pressure has only been amplified on David Stearns to come away with an ace this offseason. The Mets have been predicted to be players in both the Corbin Burnes and Max Fried races, but only one fits the bill of what they need in light of the Montas signing.

Corbin Burnes is both the ace and the workhorse the Mets desire. Over the past three seasons, he's logged at least 193 innings each campaign. During that time he's been a proven ace with an ERA of 3.39 or better each year. Burnes has elite strikeout ability and solid control while also being adept at generating soft contact.

Fried doesn't compare in terms of durability and top-end stuff. The former Atlanta Brave has never crossed the 190 innings plateau and battled injuries in 2023. His stuff is not as elite as Burnes and he relies a lot more on location and changing speeds to keep hitters off balance. Those two factors make him more of a 1A than a true number-one starter.

The Mets are losing over 360 quality innings from their rotation with Manaea and Severino likely departing. Kodai Senga is recovering from an injury-plagued year and pitches better on longer rest. Aside from Montas, no one in the Mets rotation logged more than David Peterson's 121 innings in 2024.

With Montas solving the depth issue, Burnes is a must to solve the Mets' two remaining needs – a true rotation leader and an innings eater. By banking on a Montas bounce-back, David Stearns has made signing Corbin Burnes a must for the Amazins.