With the MLB trade deadline fast approaching, the New York Mets are poised to be an incredibly active team. This year, however, presents a unique twist with the Mets' pursuit of bullpen arms directly aligns with the urgent needs of their division rivals, the Philadelphia Phillies, creating a high-stakes scenario. As reported by Jim Bowden in The Athletic, both organizations are focused on high-leverage arms and are set to chase similar relievers.
This dynamic sets the stage for not only a fierce battle for the National League East title but also a strategic war to potentially cripple their main competitor in the pursuit of crucial mid-season reinforcements. Currently, the Mets boast a demonstrably superior bullpen compared to the Phillies, an essential advantage in any pennant race.
A bullpen battleground between National League East's biggest rivals
As of recent data, the Mets' bullpen holds a collective ERA significantly better than the Phillies. More telling is their strikeout rates, where the Mets' relievers maintain a higher strikeout per nine innings compared to the Phillies', showing good swing-and-miss stuff. Furthermore, the Mets' bullpen has a lower BABIP than the Phillies' bullpen arms, bolstered by a consistently high ground ball rate from the Mets' relief arms, which helps to limit extra-base hits and keep runners off base.
The Phillies, on the other hand, find themselves in a familiar predicament, once again in dire need of reliable bullpen arms for the third consecutive season. This year, the urgency is particularly acute for high-end relievers, exacerbated by the significant loss of José Alvarado to an 80-game suspension for a PED violation and the surprisingly poor performance of Jordan Romano.
The looming trade deadline promises a cannibalistic scenario for both the Mets and Phillies as they vie for similar relief pitching options. While the Mets arguably have less pressing needs for top-tier high-leverage relievers, given the presence of established closer Edwin Díaz and the emergence of Reed Garrett, along with Huascar Brazoban who has been a revelation this season with his efficient outings,
The Phillies, by contrast, are in a more desperate situation, requiring both high-leverage specialists and deeper bullpen options to shore up their shaky relief corps. This dual need makes both teams prime targets for selling clubs with multiple bullpen pieces available. Arms like David Bednar, Aroldis Chapman, Félix Bautista, and even the Oakland A's hard-throwing Mason Miller could all be on the market at this deadline.
These high-end relievers would undoubtedly command a steep price, especially options like Miller and Bautista, who come with multiple years of team control beyond the current season. Phillies President of Baseball Operations, Dave Dombrowski, has a well-known track record of being less averse to the risk of trading away significant parts of his farm system to acquire immediate big-league talent. He has demonstrated this willingness not only with the Phillies but also during his successful tenures with other winning organizations, such as the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers, where he often depleted their minor league systems for current pieces.
Conversely, the Mets, under the astute leadership of President of Baseball Operations David Stearns, possess a deeper and more highly-regarded farm system than the Phillies. This allows Stearns to play the market strategically. He could leverage the Mets' superior prospect capital to drive up the acquisition cost for the relievers both teams desire, effectively pressuring the Phillies to sacrifice more for the pieces they desperately need. Such moves could significantly impact the Phillies' future sustainability due to current aggressive transactions. Meanwhile, the Queens team could complement their high-end acquisitions with shrewd depth options, potentially targeting pitchers with high upside like Seth Halvorsen of the Colorado Rockies. Halvorsen fits Stearns' typical profile, big stuff with potential and average current performance, but available at a relatively low acquisition cost.
As the July 31st trade deadline approaches, the competition between the Mets and Phillies will extend beyond the diamond and into the front offices. David Stearns' strategic approach and the Mets' deeper farm system could indeed play a significant role in dictating the relief pitching market, potentially leaving the Phillies scrambling and overpaying.