Could the NY Mets' offensive struggles this season be linked to seeing fewer fastballs?

The New York Mets’ offense, which was widely expected to be the main engine propelling the team into the title race this season, has instead been a source of consistent inconsistency. While the pitching staff has largely excelled, the bats have remained erratic all year. This is particularly evident in the team’s struggles with runners in scoring position, where the Mets currently rank among the five worst teams in batting average across the league.

Although much of the media and fan attention has understandably fixated on Juan Soto’s somewhat underwhelming performance following his historic signing, it’s crucial to recognize that the offensive woes extend collectively across the entire roster. This widespread issue prompts a deeper examination into whether a change in hitting approach by the Mets or an adjustment by opposing pitchers has contributed most prominently to the team’s offensive disappointment thus far.

The evolving challenge at the plate for Mets hitters goes beyond Juan Soto

The problem confronting Mets hitters appears multifaceted, stemming from various factors, some external and beyond their immediate control, but others potentially due to collective decisions that warrant re-evaluation. A prominent factor highlighted here is the proportion of fastballs the team has been receiving this season, notably lower than in previous years.

Mets hitters have steadily seen fewer fastballs in virtually all categories since 2023. However, this season, the percentage of four-seam fastballs they’ve faced is at its lowest point in the last decade, plummeting from an average of 37.7% in 2015 to just 29.8% in 2025. This significant shift in pitch distribution could be prompting a reaction from hitters and a directive from hitting coaches to slow down their swings and adopt a different approach at the plate when confronted with a higher proportion of breaking pitches, specifically sliders. This potential change in approach is reflected in two crucial variables.

Firstly, there’s a concerning drop in bat speed among the Mets’ primary hitters. With the exception of Pete Alonso, key offensive contributors like Soto, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, and Brandon Nimmo are exhibiting significant declines in their bat speed, in some cases exceeding 2 mph compared to their 2024 figures. This reduction is highly significant, given the well-established correlation between higher bat speed and an increased probability of hitting home runs. What makes this even more concerning is that declines in bat speed are often attributed to the natural aging curve of hitters, a situation that doesn't seem to fully explain the Mets' predicament when observing the declines in bat speed of relatively young players such as Soto and Vientos.

This points to a collective adjustment by the team, combined with another factor that appears to be hindering offensive production: their batted-ball approach. The Mets seem to be employing a whole-field approach this season, which has resulted in them pulling the ball at their lowest rate in the last six seasons. Concurrently, they have increased the direction of their hits toward the center and opposite sides of the field, likely an attempt to capitalize on the Mets' second-best hard-hit contact percentage.

However, as has been widely studied and documented, the most favorable offensive results typically stem from hitters' increased ability to pull the ball. Taking Soto as an example: during his exceptional 2024 offensive season, he pulled the ball for the highest proportion of his career (43.2%), which likely also benefited from the dimensions of Yankee Stadium, but ultimately contributed to him generating the highest offensive production of his young career.

The Mets must always adapt to changes in opposing pitchers' repertoires and pitching distribution, but they should be wary of radicalizing their hitting approach. Instead, the Mets should endeavor to leverage increased bat speed and aggressively attack the ball to generate more pulled hits. This, combined with their already strong hard-hit contact rate, would likely lead to greater damage and overall offensive production.