NY Mets rumors link them to intriguing bounceback candidate to pair with Frankie Montas

The New York Mets have been in full-on upgrade mode when it comes to their starting rotation. Shortly after inking free-agent starter Frankie Montas to a two-year $34 million deal, the Amazins have been linked to Walker Buehler whom they'd presumably pair with Montas as a rebound candidate to round out the back of the rotation.

There's plenty to like about Buehler. He's a former top prospect who has a track record of stellar performance and post-season production. In 2019 he posted a 14-4 record and 3.26 ERA in 182.1 innings pitched as a 24-year-old. That performance was good for 5.1 fWAR.

In 2021, he made 33 starts and logged 207.2 innings while going 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA which was good for 5.6 fWAR. Sandwiched between the COVID-shortened 2020 season, that's essentially back-to-back 5+ fWAR years which is ace-like production.

In his prime, Buehler struck out more than a batter an inning while posting less than 2.5 BB/9. He also excelled at limiting the long ball posting no more than 0.99 HR/9 in 2018, 2019, and 2021. And when it comes to post-season brilliance he stands out with a 3.04 career playoff ERA in 94.2 innings, including a minuscule 0.47 ERA over 4 World Series appearances (including 3 starts).

The NY Mets would be paying for Buehler's future performance and not past brilliance

The once burgeoning ace has had his fair share of setbacks in recent years. He had his second career Tommy John surgery in August of 2022 which caused him to miss half of 2022 and all of 2023 before returning in 2024.

Last season he was limited to just 16 starts and 75.1 innings. He lost nearly two months to a right hip injury and struggled upon his return in August. In all, he finished the year with a 5.38 ERA.

More concerning are the former Dodger's underlying metrics. His strikeout rate dropped to 18.6% down from his career rate of 26%. His HR/9 ballooned to 1.91, much higher than his 1.06 career mark and nearly double what he allowed in his prime years. His stuff has also declined as displayed by his 94 Stuff+ which was down considerably from his 117 mark in 2021, his last fully healthy season.

The aforementioned deal for Montas, who spent last year coming back from shoulder surgery, as well as the Chicago Cubs' recent signing of Matthew Boyd to a two-year $29 million contract following his abbreviated 2024 campaign after Tommy John surgery, have established a high bar for the injury-rebound-starter market.

Buehler has both a more premium pedigree and a more impressive track record than either of those two pitchers, so he'll likely get even more than those two on the open market. With the Mets' needs for both depth and talent in the rotation, Buehler's potential price could be too steep, and his addition too risky when paired with Montas in the rebuilt rotation.

Buehler's a nice, shiny name, but the Mets will be paying for his future projection which is nowhere near as rosy as his past performance. They'd be wise to make other plans.