How close are the new faces in the NY Mets rotation to last year's models?

When it comes to the starting rotation, the New York Mets have a type. While other teams splurge on big names, the Mets have made a habit of betting on reclamation projects, tinkering with them in the pitching lab, and unleashing the rebuilt monsters on the rest of the league.

After the successes they had with Sean Manaea and Luis Severino in 2024, it's hard to disagree with their results, however, it begs the question as to whether it was pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and the lab that were the primary driving force, or the inherent skill and dedication of those players that led to the successful results.

The other issue with this plan is the short-term nature of these gambles means if they have success rebuilding a pitcher, he'll bolt for a fat contract elsewhere and the cycle must repeat itself. This is what happened this offseason, and the Mets now have a new crop of projects for 2025. The question is, is it reasonable to expect the new faces to be upgrades over the hurlers to whom they bid farewell?

The Mets replaced Luis Severino with Frankie Montas. Did they upgrade?

After a solid bounce-back season in Queens, Luis Severino bolted for a juicy three-year $67 million deal with the Athletics. The Mets directly replaced him with their next great reclamation project inking Frankie Montas to a two-year $34 million deal with an opt-out after the 2025 season.

On the surface, Montas and Severino are similar pitchers. Both looked like burgeoning aces early in their careers. Both later struggled with injuries. Finally, both ultimately fought their way back just to struggle to regain any semblance of their old form.

However, there are some differences to consider. Severino's best years between 2017-2018 during which time he posted back-to-back 190+ inning seasons and posted ERAs of 2.98 and 3.39, respectively.

From 2019 through 2021 he was limited to just 18 innings pitched in total due to a variety of injuries. He then rebounded in 2022 with a 3.18 ERA, though he was limited to just 19 starts and 102 innings due to his recovery from the aforementioned injuries. In 2023, the wheels fell off as he posted a repulsive 6.65 ERA that he attributed to issues with tipping his pitches.

Montas brings a more recent track record of success. His 2021 season saw him reach a career-best 187 innings pitched while posting a 3.37 ERA and nearly 10 K/9. His 2022 season got off to a similarly hot start. With the then-Oakland A's he pitched to a 3.18 ERA over 104.2 innings both a midseason trade to the New York Yankees.

In the Bronx, Montas's shoulder began barking and he struggled immensely posting a 6.35 ERA in just 39.2 innings. That bum shoulder required surgery that ultimately costs Montas basically the entire 2023 season.

When Montas returned in 2024, first with the Cincinnati Reds before finishing the year with the Brewers following a trade deadline deal that sent him to Milwaukee, and appeared healthy, but underwhelming.

On the year, Montas posted a 4.84 ERA while surrendering an untenable 1.43 HR/9. His FIP and xERA agreed that his performance was not very good, as both metrics clocked in at 4.71. On the plus side, he was able to make 30 starts and pitched 150.2 innings, even if they were mostly forgettable.

Ultimately, Severino was able to shake off the injury rust faster and pitch more effectively than Montas in his return season. His 2023 struggles weren't due to diminished stuff or mechanical issues, but rather a mental hurdle that led to him tipping his pitches, making his resurgence with the Mets, not all that surprising, all things considered.

Montas on the other hand has already proven he is healthy, but he's yet to prove that he is still good. The Mets hope that they can bring that past dominance out of him once again, but unlike Severino, there are no post-injury flashes to bank on. For that reason, it's hard to bet on him to outperform 2024 Severino.

The Verdict: This is a downgrade.