3 rebound relievers the NY Mets should take a chance on based on Stuff+

Relievers in MLB are the most volatile position on the diamond. It's easy for a good reliever to have a bad season, given the small sample size of innings they typically throw each year. No reliever in the last 15 seasons has pitched 100 innings out of the bullpen, so conventional methods of evaluating pitchers aren't effective. A stat like Stuff+ is very valuable when looking at a reliever, given it focuses on their abilities, rather than the results. It is also a stat that the New York Mets' front office seems to holds in high regard. The Mets need relievers, with a shallow depth chart, and All-Star closer Edwin Diaz is likely to opt out of his current deal and test free agency. To help alleviate their need for relievers, they should go out and sign some hurlers whose value is currently lower, but still have great stuff per Stuff+.

3 rebound relievers the NY Mets should sign this offseason

1) Devin Williams

The crosstown rival New York Yankees acquired Devin Williams with the hope that he could continue to be a shutdown closer. After all, Williams had established himself as one of baseball's best late-inning men with the Milwaukee Brewers, as he had the second-lowest ERA and strikeout rate at 1.70 and 40.8%, respectively, along with a league-leading 14.33 win percentage added (WPA) from his 2020 Rookie of the Year campaign up through 2024.

But the Yankees were not prepared for the sudden drop-off in Williams's performance. He had a 4.79 ERA and a WPA of just 0.08 over the course of 62 innings of work. But many of his peripherals were still very strong. Williams struck out over a third of opponents, with a 34.7% strikeout rate. His walk rate of 9.7% is the lowest of his career (second lowest if you count 2020). Williams struggled most with a significant rise in exit velocity and barrel percentage. Opponents averaged only 85.1 MPH exit velocity and a 4.6% barrel rate from 2020 to 2024. With the Yankees, he had an 89.5 MPH exit velocity and 9.3% barrel rate.

The most convincing piece of evidence that Williams will rebound in 2026 is the fact that Williams' pitch quality is as good as it's ever been. Stuff+ pinned him at 114. During his time with the Brewers, he had a 116 Stuff+. Williams' infamous air-bending change-up was still as elite as ever, with a Stuff+ of 124. He didn't lose any fastball velocity either, going from 94.3 MPH in 2023-2024 to 94.1 MPH in 2025. While batters may have made hard contact when they were able to catch up to Williams' pitches, it wasn't that frequently, given his 99th percentile whiff rate.

Outside of Williams' ERA, exit velocity, and barrel rate, there isn't much else to suggest his 2025 was anything more than a fluke. He still had plenty of strikeouts and swings and misses, a sub-10% walk rate, and his stuff did not take a step back. In the event Edwin Diaz walks in free agency, this could be the Mets' replacement.