Best NY Mets alternative to Edwin Diaz might not even cost much less

As the New York Mets put the final touches on their offseason shopping list, a few loose ends need to be tied up first. It's widely expected that closer Edwin Diaz will opt out of the final two years of his contract. Should that happen, there's some thought that the Mets could look to make a change in order to have more room in the budget to attack other holes.

The free-agent closer market isn't too deep, however, and if the club were to pursue this path, they wouldn't want to see a huge drop-off in talent. Another year removed from his gruesome injury in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Diaz rebounded to the rarified air that few closers can match with a 1.63 ERA in 66.1 innings. Given that, only one name stands out as an alternative capable of sniffing the same level of production: former San Diego Padres closer Robert Suarez.

If Suarez could replicate 90% of what Diaz can do, the Mets would be in good shape, but only if he comes at a decent enough discount compared to the most premium model. According to Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required), that won't be the case.

Robert Suarez's projected contract should make retaining Edwin Diaz the Mets' preferred option

Bowden, a former MLB general manager, predicts a four-year, $88 million pact in Diaz's future. That would put him at the top of the closer totem pole in terms of average annual value, breaking the $20.4 million AAV his current contract set as the largest ever for a reliever.

That's a hefty price, but Robert Suarez isn't that far behind. Bowden pegs him at four years and $80 million, making him just $2 million cheaper on an AAV basis. That's not much of a discount, and if you look at the numbers, it seems to be a worse value.

Diaz will be entering his age-32 season with nine years of experience locking down the ninth. His 2.82 career ERA and 14.54 K/9 are both elite marks.

Suarez will be going into his age-35 season, but that doesn't mean that he has more experience. Instead, his career began overseas, toiling in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league for several years before coming stateside in 2022. He didn't grab closer duties with the Padres until 2024. He's been good overall, with a 2.91 career ERA, but he's never reached the same heights as Diaz. His 2025 ERA of 2.97 pales in comparison to Diaz's 1.63 mark.

What if Bowden is off base, though? Maybe he's overshooting the runway, and what Suarez actually might get would make him a more attractive alternative? Well, Spotrac posts its own contract projections, which were a bit more modest for both players. Diaz came in at four years, $73.4 million, while the database pegged Suarez at four years for $67.3 million. Again, not much of a gap, reaffirming the idea that Suarez won't come at much of a discount.

Few relievers can truly do what Diaz can, and without any significant cost savings, pivoting to the next-best option, it probably makes sense for David Stearns to just pony up and pay the man. The Mets' bullpen was a mess at times in 2025. Why complicate the matter further by moving on from the only true constant? Top-shelf closers are getting more and more expensive, but in this case, Diaz is worth every penny.