Why the Cubs have a better chance at retaining Clay Holmes than the NY Mets do at re-signing him

The New York Mets certainly rolled the dice by trading Clay Holmes at the 2026 trade deadline. The club will need to add starting pitching this offseason, and while Holmes is a free-agent-to-be, there was hope that New York would be able to re-sign him.

Essentially, the Mets are trying to do with Holmes what the Yankees did with Aroldis Chapman back in 2016: trade him to the Chicago Cubs for a haul, and then welcome him back to the fold as soon as the offseason rolls around. The thing is, players aren't unemotional robots, and there was a chance that the maneuver would upset Holmes, forcing him to sign elsewhere this winter.

So far, that doesn't seem to be the case. When the trade to the Cubs became final, Holmes had nothing but good things to say about his time in Queens, and specifically, his experience with the fans. The Mets were one of the only teams willing to consider him as a starting pitcher last go-around, allowing him to achieve a key goal in his professional development.

How much those good feelings will matter when the season comes to a close and the veteran right-hander is marketing his services again remains to be seen. In the meantime, there's something else that threatens his return to the organization, and it has to do with the roster construction in his new digs on Chicago's North Side.

The Cubs can offer Clay Holmes a better supporting cast for his skill set than the Mets can

When it comes time to choose his next destination (or return to an old one), there will be several factors that Holmes will consider. Money, of course, matters. Location does, too, at least to an extent. But within the foul lines, there is something else that can sway the 33-year-old, and it's what puts New York at a real disadvantage.

We all know that Holmes' bread and butter is that turbo sinker that he uses to get opposing hitters to pound balls into the dirt. It's something that has been on full display since he arrived in Chicago, as he's posted a 71.2% ground ball rate over his first three starts there (16 innings).

Chicago has loved what they've received as Holmes has posted a 2.81 ERA and stabilized their battered rotation since his arrival. But also, the Cubs love what he's doing because it feeds directly into one of their greatest strengths: team defense.

The Cubs have far and away the best defense in the league, and while some of that has to do with high-flying center fielder and all-time Mets' regret, Pete Crow-Armstrong, it's largely due to the strength fo their infield defense.

Overall, Chicago leads MLB in outs above average (62), defensive runs saved (88), and fielding run value (62). No other team is particularly close to catching them in any of these metrics, either. In the infield, the Cubs have Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner, all of whom have Gold Gloves on their resumes.

The Mets have a much shoddier record in the field, with the defensive metrics not completely in agreement. New York has posted a 25th-ranked outs above average, coming in at -20. By the same token, the team's 43 defensive runs saved ranks sixth. Fielding run value sort of splits the difference with an 18th-ranked mark of -4.

The infield defense, in particular, has been bad, with Marcus Semien and Francisco Lindor putting up performances that are much worse than their career averages, and the corners at times being disaster zones depending on what the lineup looks like. So much for David Stearns' top priority being run prevention.

We've also seen another former Met and ground ball maven, David Peterson, succeed in front of Chicago's stout defense after struggling in Flushing this season, adding even more credence to the idea that the glove work makes a world of difference.

The Cubs have various starters, like Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd, hitting free agency ensuring that they'll have motivation to spend to bolster their rotation. Being that they can provide Holmes a more friendly environment to apply his craft, it's hard to see how they don't beat out the Mets for his services.

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