NY Mets prospect who's been garnering attention might be due for a regression

Often, when something seems too good to be true, it usually is. It’s too early to tell for sure, but that may be the case for New York Mets prospect and catcher Kevin Parada’s sudden breakout for Triple-A Syracuse.

Parada, 24, was the Mets’ first-round pick in the 2022 MLB Draft after an outstanding final season at Georgia Tech. The first years of the young catcher’s professional career had largely been a struggle. They featured high strikeout numbers – 126 across three levels in 2023, then 153 with Double-A Binghamton in 2024 – and a heavy dip in slugging from his collegiate career.

After the Mets promoted Parada to Syracuse last September, his hitting stats bottomed out in 16 games in Triple-A. He began the season back in Binghamton this year before another promotion in May. This time, Parada has suddenly appeared to turn things around.

The numbers behind Kevin Parada’s surprising turnaround

Prior to re-joining the Syracuse Mets last month, Parada’s offensive numbers throughout his minor league career were unimpressive at best. After hitting 26 home runs and owning a .709 slugging percentage in his last year for the Yellow Jackets, the young catcher has never hit more than 14 home runs in a season so far in the minors. Without the home runs, his slugging percentage has also remained low.

Parada’s average has plummeted in his jump to pro ball too. He hit .318 for Georgia Tech in 2021, then .360 (with a .452 on-base percentage) in 2022. Not counting the 13 games he played in the Mets’ system after he was drafted in 2022, Parada has never hit above .270 in his professional career. The closest he’s come was a .265 mark in 87 games with High-A Brooklyn in 2023.

The Mets expected to be getting a bat-first catching prospect when they drafted Parada so early – three picks before they took Jett Williams – in 2022. Instead, for the early seasons of his pro career, Parada’s hitting and power abilities seemingly couldn’t keep up with higher competition.

That’s what has made his sudden resurgence in Syracuse this year so surprising. In nine games in Triple-A this year, Parada is slashing .355/.400/.484. He got an on-base and slugging bump in his most recent outing: a 13-2 win in the second half of a doubleheader that included a three-run double and a walk from the catcher. Now, all three marks of his slash line – batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage – would be easily the best of Parada’s professional career if they hold up.

Why Kevin Parada’s latest Syracuse numbers could be a mirage

Those last four words, “if they hold up,” add key context when looking at Parada’s 2026 performance so far. One has to remember that, as good as he’s looking in his second shot in Triple-A, he’s only played in nine games – and taken 35 at-bats.

Looking a bit deeper into Parada’s numbers with the prospectsavant.com tool, there’s some room for regression – particularly with his batting average. The catcher had a stunningly high BABIP of .455 in his first seven games back with Syracuse, suggesting he’s getting a bit lucky with where his hits are falling. A spray chart of Parada’s first 10 hits in Triple-A this year shows three infield hits, all fielded in front of third base – not cut off short of the outfield grass.

Parada also isn’t hitting the ball particularly hard. Though he was in the 96th percentile of barrel percentage through May, he was only 60th percentile in hard-hit rate and 56th percentile in average exit velocity.

Prospectsavant projects Parada’s expected batting average at .275 – still good, but far below his actual .355 average – and his strikeout rate at under 20%. Both would be promising numbers, but only if they hold over a larger sample size. Given that the young catcher struck out in 26.6% of plate appearances in 2025 and 33.7% of them in 2024, his 2026 numbers with Syracuse could be either a continuation of a positive trajectory or a blip in the radar.

Right now, it’s far too early to declare Parada ready for MLB based on an incredibly small sample size with Syracuse. He isn’t a prospect like Carson Benge or A.J. Ewing – guys that had strong seasons at lower levels of the minors to back up short-yet-strong outings in Triple-A.

Mets fans should wait and expect some regression to the mean for Parada. Regardless, there is some reason to be a bit more hopeful about his future. One thing we’ll be looking out for is whether Parada’s power can return in a meaningful way over the course of more games with Syracuse. A power surge would be a huge step in convincing Mets brass that he deserves a shot at the big-league level, especially as the current major league roster lacks pop.

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