This NY Mets prospect is about to enter a complicated situation

New York Mets Jack Wenninger was a sixth-round pick out of the University of Illinois in 2023 and has been on a steady trajectory since joining the professional ranks. He had an outstanding year with Double-A Binghamton in 2025, pitching to a 2.92 ERA and 3.36 FIP over 135.2 innings, earning him a promotion to Triple-A to start 2026 as well as the No. 9 spot on the organization's top prospect list.

He started the year as a potential candidate to leapfrog Jonah Tong on the way to the majors but a lack of consistency in recent times has delayed a possible call-up indefinitely. After posting a 2.80 ERA in the first two months of the season, he has posted a 6.02 ERA since the start of June. He definitely has what it takes to make a big league rotation and is still just 24 years old but time is running out if he wants to debut in a Mets uniform.

Jack Wenninger could be a prime target for other teams in this year's Rule 5 Draft

The Rule 5 draft exists to prevent talent hoarding and give prospects a clearer path to the majors if they find themselves buried in an organization's depth chart. For players that were signed at age 19 or younger, an organization must either add them to the 40-man roster or give another team a chance to acquire them for the low price of $100,000.

Wenninger will be eligible in this year's draft (assuming it's unaffected by a looming labor stoppage) and it's hard to imagine that teams will pass up on him if he's available. Although his ERA of 4.43 and FIP of 5.53 hardly scream elite prospect, he has some compelling qualities under the hood.

His numbers are largely struggling from a lack of control with just 43.3% of his pitches landing in the strike zone and a 13.1% walk rate. However, when he does find the zone, opposing hitters are having a hard time. Despite the free passes, he still has a strong strikeout rate of 22.2% and a whiff rate of 28.0% as well as a zone contact rate of 82.0%.

His fastball averages just under 94 mph but has 17.2 induced vertical break, making it fairly effective as long as it can be commanded well at the top of the zone. His secondary pitches seem promising as well with his changeup and sweeper both having whiff rates greater than 40% this year.

This creates a tricky situation for the Mets and Wenninger. He's not quite ready for the big leagues but if they don't add him to the 40-man roster, he could be joining a competing rotation as soon as next year. If they do add him, someone else will have to be optioned, designated for assignment, or released and given the team's financial commitments, that's much easier said than done.

The team has plenty of questions to answer this offseason and Wenninger isn't the only player whose place in the organization may change come winter. The Mets' pitching staff has already gone through considerable reshuffling recently with several trade deadline departures and recent injuries but Wenninger still hasn't gotten his chance. By December, it could be too little, too late for him and the Mets.

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