1 NY Mets prospect is trending toward being next year’s Jonah Tong

New York Mets young right-hander Jonah Tong has developed into one of the sport’s best pitching prospects. Tong currently leads all minor league pitchers with at least 100 IP in ERA (1.43), FIP (1.67), strikeout rate (40.5%), K%-BB% (29.9%), and has the second-best WHIP (0.92). He has now gotten the call to the Major Leagues. Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America have him as a top 50 prospect, but that wasn’t always the case. Tong was only a seventh-round pick and wasn’t even among the Mets’ top 30 prospects heading into 2024. The Mets have another prospect who could follow a somewhat similar path in 2026, namely Jack Wenninger.

The Mets drafted Wenninger one round earlier than Tong in 2023. Selected out of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Wenninger had some troubles in his first full season of pro ball in 2024. He pitched to a 4.30 ERA, albeit with a solid 3.56 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP. The right-hander struck out 27.9% of opponents, with an 8% walk rate. Wenninger didn’t allow many home runs either, with a 0.86 HR/9 ratio through 115 innings pitched between St. Lucie and Brooklyn.

That isn’t entirely unlike Tong, who got his first taste of professional play during the 2023 season. Tong pitched only 21.1 innings with a 6.00 ERA, a 22% walk rate, and 1.29 HR/9. But he got his fair share of strikeouts, with a 38% strikeout percentage.  It was a smaller sample size, and a worse performance, but probably neither Tong nor Wenninger got off to the sort of start they were hoping for.

Jack Wenninger looks like he could be next year's Jonah Tong

But Wenninger’s second look in pro ball has gone much better. He owns a 2.73 ERA, 3.22 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP over the course of 118.2 IP at Double-A Binghamton. His peripherals have remained largely unchanged from his 2024 levels. He has struck out 27.7% of opponents with a 7.5% walk rate. Wenninger’s HR/9 sits at 0.83. His ground ball rate has risen slightly from 44.9% to 46.4% as well. Tong has improved his FIP, and his xFIP has fallen below 3.00, currently sitting at 2.94 (down from 3.30 in 2024).

Tong’s second go against professional batters also went very well. He improved to the tune of a 3.03 ERA, 2.33 FIP, and 1.17 WHIP over 113 innings between St. Lucie and Brooklyn. Tong may have had a 10% walk rate, but he struck out over a third of opponents with a 34.2% K%. He allowed just three home runs, resulting in a 0.24 HR/9 ratio. His ground ball rate and xFIP in 2024 were very similar to Wenninger’s current marks in both statistics. Tong had a 2.88 xFIP and 45.4% GB%.

Another similarity is that Wenninger didn’t open the year on Baseball America’s top 30 prospect list. This list also included guys like Kevin Parada, Blade Tidwell, and Dom Hamel at the start of the year. But Wenninger hasn’t just become a top 30 prospect in the Mets’ system; he is now a top ten prospect in the organization. BA ranks him at #9, giving him high praise for his change-up, which they grade out with a 65 grade. His mid-90s four-seam fastball also gets an above-average 55 mark.

Tong is younger, as he just turned 22 in June, and Wenninger turns 24 next March. However, you can see the similarities between the two and why Wenninger could be the Mets’ next fast-rising pitching prospect. He’s gone from an unranked hurler to a top ten member of their farm system, while following up his unimpressive first impression with a strong encore.