2026 NY Mets projections point to a glaring issue across the lineup

It's difficult to see the future. One might even argue that it's impossible. But that doesn't stop baseball fans from doing their best leading into every regular season. How much stock an individual places into each projection system is purely subjective but in some cases, it's enough to be a cause for concern.

The most tenured systems employed by leading authorities like FanGraphs are conservative given the volatile nature of baseball. However, they're typically reasonably accurate barring anomalous injuries or breakout seasons. Although Dan Szymborski wrote about his optimism about the positive effects of their offseason moves in his most recent set of ZiPS estimates, Steamer isn't quite as bullish.

According to FanGraphs' Steamer projections, the Mets will have major issues with getting on base next season

Steamer is different from Szymborski's ZiPS system but is based on a similar algorithm and is equally as respected as a way to forecast what players will accomplish. After taking a look at its projections for the Mets lineup, there's a clear problem in on-base percentage. Juan Soto is unsurprisingly expected to lead the team with a .413 OBP but the second-highest player is Bo Bichette at .337.

In fact, only two other players are estimated to have an OBP higher than .320: Francisco Lindor (.336) and Jorge Polanco (.326). This means that the team's combined OBP will likely under league-average which tends to be in the .310 - .315 range.

The biggest individual red flag is newly acquired center fielder Luis Robert Jr. who already comes with other performance concerns. According to Steamer, he's slated for an OBP of just .295 over 477 plate appearances. Over his last three seasons with the White Sox, his on-base percentage has been just .299 so the system isn't totally misguided in its bearish assumptions. Other names with lukewarm OBP forecasts include Mark Vientos (.310), Luis Torrens (.296), and Tyrone Taylor (.286).

On the bright side, the Mets still have encouraging offensive estimates. Most of their main starters are projected to post wRC+ figures above 100 and six are expected to post figures of 115 or higher thanks to strong slugging numbers. Getting on base is just one part of the slash line but it's still a crucial aspect of scoring runs. Power is great but without runners to drive home, the value of doubles and home runs decrease drastically.

Again, it's important to acknowledge that these projection systems are often on the pessimistic side and have already made other cynical bets on the Mets' 2026 season but the burden of proof is on the team. Will they prevail over the computer or is there truth in the numbers?