Predicting what the NY Mets trade for Luis Robert Jr. will be remembered for most

Trades like this are always easier to judge once time has done the talking. Right now, the New York Mets convinced themselves that they are finally fixing center field. David Stearns is taking a swing on upside, betting that past production will show up again in Queens. But if you’re betting on past production, then you also have to accept the red flags that come with it as well.

Luis Robert Jr. brings real positives to the table. Power, speed, and the flashes of star-level play give this trade enough positives to make it defensible. But careers are built on availability and consistency, not highlights. When you step back and look at the full body of work rather than the best moments, the concerns come into focus quickly. Those concerns are what will stick with this trade.

The Luis Robert Jr. trade will be remembered as another David Stearns center field whiff

David Stearns has already tried to fix center field more than once. Tyrone Taylor. José Siri. Cedric Mullins. Mets fans know the list and the results. This trade fits that same pattern. It’s another swing at the upside and an attempt to solve the same problem with a player who comes with clear risks baked in.

Robert does have strong positives to his game. He brings elite defense in center field, speed on the bases, and a potential for power. His 2023 season stands out as he hit 38 home runs, drove in 80 RBIs, and had an .857 OPS. That year is what makes this trade feel justifiable. It is the season being bet on and doing most of the heavy lifting on why he fits in Queens.

The problem is that season is the exception, not the rule. Over the last four years, Robert has played more than 110 games only once. That means that in three of the last four seasons, he missed more than 32 percent of the schedule. Defense does not help from the injured list. Speed does not matter if you are unavailable.

The offensive trends add to the concern. Robert has posted a sub .300 on-base percentage in each of the last two seasons. His OPS+ did not clear 86 in either year. The strikeouts climbed to 33 percent in 2024 and stayed high again in 2025. He also faced right-handed pitching in roughly three-quarters of his plate appearances and struggled both seasons. A platoon does not make sense for a player costing the Mets $46 million after the luxury tax penalty.

Yes, the prospect cost was light, but all the red flags have to be considered, too. When this trade is looked back on, it will not be remembered as a solution in center field. It will be remembered as another Stearns swing that failed to fix the position.