Preseason NY Mets prediction for why they’d win the NL East is laughable today

How did you honestly think the New York Mets would perform in 2026? As SNY’s John Harper recently re-shared, the bottom many believed had them at 83 wins largely because of the latter part of their lineup. The believers thought 95 wins was possible because of their pitching.

When I polled scouts/execs just before ST about the Mets, not even the skeptics predicted doom. The low-end win prediction was 83 from a scout who said, "The bottom half of the lineup is full of holes." The high end was 95 from an exec who said, "I really like their pitching."
— John Harper (@NYNJHarper) April 30, 2026

Those who spoke to Harper weren’t alone. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris boldly proclaimed the Mets would take the NL East. His reasoning was their pitching depth.

The Mets pitching depth is a big reason why they aren't winning the NL East

The Mets have gotten what we would’ve expected out of Freddy Peralta with room to grow. Nolan McLean looks like the guy. Clay Holmes continues to embarrass anyone who believed he couldn’t make it as a starting pitcher. Those three have continued to make the Mets credible even when wins are impossible to find.

It’s the rest of the starters who’ve become problematic. With Kodai Senga on the IL, David Peterson unusable as a starter, and Sean Manaea not even truly considered for a rotation spot, the Mets have had to turn to the deeper parts of the depth chart in order to get through the first month of the season.

Tobias Myers had a short yet effective outing so maybe he can help the Mets battle back. Christian Scott couldn’t find the strike zone and will get another chance, perhaps multiple, to remind us what a good young prospect he was before Tommy John surgery. Jonah Tong waiting in the minors and Jack Wenninger continuing to grow, there are names on paper we can believe will help out the Mets.

This doesn’t include young relief arms like Ryan Lambert and Dylan Ross whose biggest issue will be, stop me when this sounds familiar, throwing strikes. They’ll blow a ball past you. You just won’t know if it’s over your head or right down the middle.

David Stearns did a good job at filling the life raft. The issue is he forgot everyone was wearing cleats and every time they take the mound, another section goes pop!

Depth can save any team, the Mets currently relying on Ronny Mauricio at shortstop regularly and MJ Melendez batting in the middle of the order as two examples. It’s not enough, though. What was predicted to be the saving grace of the Mets and lead them to the top of the NL East has become one of the fixtures as to why every day there’s a “should we fire the manager?” conversation.

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The Mets pitching depth is a big reason why they aren't winning the NL East

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