Predicting when the NY Mets give up on the Bo Bichette at 3B experiment

David Stearns' top priority for the offseason was improving the New York Mets' run prevention. Whether or not he accomplished that goal is up for debate. What is certain is that the club solidified its up-the-middle defense with additions like Luis Robert Jr. and Marcus Semien. The infield corners are a different story, and one we'll need time to properly evaluate.

While there's reason to worry about Jorge Polanco at first base, the biggest gamble was also New York's most expensive. Bo Bichette moving from shortstop to third base may or may not be the magic bullet to fix his defensive issues. He got his first big test when David Peterson made his first start of the year on March 28. Peterson generated a 70% ground ball rate against the Pittsburgh Pirates, one of which led to Bichette's first error.

By June 1, the Mets will realize the need to end the Bo Bichette experiment at third base

There's a fallacy in believing that simply because a player moves off of the most difficult position on the field, shortstop, to go to the hot corner, his defense will automatically improve. The skill set required to complete the actions at third is drastically different than short. That means it's not quite a seamless transition.

Third base is all about reactions, quick-twitch reflexes, and having a good first step. Shortstop, meanwhile, needs speed and athleticism to range for balls. Where the two positions are similar is that arm strength is a key component.

Bichette struggles in this regard. Last season, his 82.3 miles per hour average arm strength was a 36th percentile mark. As you can see in the video of his errant throw, he's not comfortable making the toss across the diamond and needed considerable load in order to uncork the ball.

Beyond errors, there is reason to be concerned. Bichette has posted -1 outs above average in just 74.2 innings of work so far. That's not a huge sample, but if he were to keep up that pace and stay healthy, he'd wind up with roughly 1,200 innings played and a -16 OAA. That would beat Yoan Moncada's -13 OAA last season for the worst mark among MLB third basemen (though Moncada's butchery came in just 593.1 innings).

It would be one thing if the Mets didn't have another option, but they do. Rather than have Brett Baty bounce between DH and a variety of other positions, the Mets can simply stick him at third and make Bichette the full-time DH. While he might not be an elite defender, Baty posted 2 OAA last season over 573 innings at third. That's some above-average work.

One has to imagine that Bichette, who just turned 28 and is in the prime of his career, may not have signed here if he knew he was going to be a full-time DH. Many players, even though they may be poor defenders, take pride in their ability to play the field. Take Juan Soto as a case in point.

There's also sure to be a level of stubbornness from the club. If they're going to pay a guy $42 million per year, they don't want him to simply be a one-dimensional player. That's understandable, up to a point.

What will happen is they'll give Bichette every opportunity to prove he can be an adequate glove at third. Kai Correa will work overtime with him if he has to. Eventually, they'll run out of runway and realize their mistake. Bichette isn't built for the hot corner. A transition to second, where his experience at short and weak arm play better might have worked, but that was never in the cards. Eventually, they'll come to see that his bat is the draw, and the best thing for the team as a whole is to get him out of the field. June 1 will have proven they gave him every opportunity, and by then, they'll feel comfortable moving on.