NY Mets predicted to pass on Clay Holmes, where they shouldn't spend the money instead

While the New York Mets had several young arms breakout with Christian Scott and Zac Thornton joining Nolan McLean as a starting rotation building blocks. While that's a good start, we can all agree that a couple of veteran additions are needed to flesh out the depth chart.

One obvious answer to the veteran starter question would be a reunion with Clay Holmes. Holmes has reportedly been open to returning to the Mets and posted a 3.26 ERA over 42 games (40 starts) in Queens.

Over at The Athletic, MLB insider Jim Bowden doesn't see things that way. Bowden names the top destinations for Holmes as the Chicago White Sox and the San Francisco Giants, with a contract of two years, $44 million.

In place of Holmes, the most similar contract Bowden projects is a two-year, $45 million deal for left-handed starter Robby Ray. Ray is much more experienced as a starter, has two All-Star selections on his resume, and his crowning achievement was winning the 2021 AL Cy Young Award. However, signing him in lieu of reuniting with Holmes would be a mistake for New York.

Robbie Ray is the wrong Clay Holmes pivot for the New York Mets

At his best, Ray has been a big-time strikeout artist. During his Cy Young campaign, he recorded a 32.1% strikeout rate and has a 27.6% career mark. Given the up-and-down nature of the Mets' defense (despite David Stearns' run-prevention mantra), a strikeout-heavy pitcher would be ideal.

The problem is that at age 35, Ray is no longer that guy. He finished 2026 with a 19.9% K-rate, which compares more closely to the 18.6% mark the pitch-to-contact Holmes put up. The difference is that Holmes is a ground-ball machine, which limits damage, whereas Ray posted a paltry 34.1% ground-ball rate in 2026 and has a career mark of 38.2%.

On top of that, Ray struggles with walks. He doled out free passes at a 12% clip, which is way too high if he's not striking out batters and allowing so many balls to be hit in the air.

While he posted a 3.59 ERA in 2026, the peripherals tell a much uglier story. Ray recorded a 4.80 xERA, 4.69 FIP, and a 4.91 xFIP. For what it's worth, Sean Manaea posted a 4.73 xERA, 4.54 FIP, and 4.26 xFIP this season, making him appear to be a better option than Ray.

Given his age, it seems pretty obvious that Ray is entering his decline phase, making a $22.5 million AAV a wild overpay. If the Mets insist on giving $40-ish million to a starter not named Clay Holmes, Casey Mize would be a better pick.

Like Ray, Mize lacks in the strikeouts and ground-ball departments, but he limits walks with a well-above-average 6.9% rate and is nearly six years younger. Bowden predicts that Mize will land a three-year, $54 million contract. While that outlay is more overall, it comes out to a more reasonable $18 million AAV.

Really, this all would be overcomplicating matters. The easy answer is to reunite with the pitcher who has already proved that he can perform well for you. That means re-signing Holmes. Still, if the Mets want to venture out and explore new opportunities, Robby Ray is one that they must avoid.

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