You won't believe the NY Mets player projected to have the 3rd best batting average

If you’re scanning the New York Mets’ Steamer projections expecting the “best batting average” list to be a bunch of established stars, congrats — you’re normal. But the fun part of sorting that FanGraphs table by AVG is the curveball it throws at you.

Yes, Juan Soto sits at the top of the Mets’ list in batting average (.274), with Francisco Lindor right behind him (.259). Pretty believable. Then comes the record scratch: Luisangel Acuña — projected for the third-best batting average on the team at .254. 

Luisangel Acuña’s batting average projection doesn’t match his projected role

The catch (and this is a big one) is that we are working off of Acuña playing just 44 games and having 175 at-bats; so we are really looking at "somebody that fits into the mix here and there" rather than an everyday player. As such, a .254 batting average would be interesting and kind of hilarious. The hardest part is to project consistency from a small sample size. Two weeks of poor play in April will completely kill a projection like that with only 175 at-bats to reference.

Still, the projection is telling you what kind of player Acuña is supposed to be when the math spits out something optimistic: contact, speed, and a profile that can survive without homers. Last season, he appeared in 95 games and got 193 plate appearances, and the lack of pop was real — zero home runs, 8 RBI — but he also stole 16 bases and hit .234.  If you’re going to build a “batting average value” case without power, you basically have to live on singles, pressure, and legs. Acuña at least checks those boxes on paper.

There’s another interesting ripple that is very relevant to the Mets; the Steamer list that also increases Acuña's value also has Polanco at 110 games (471 PA). Whether that represents a "bet" on Polanco as far as his ability to stay healthy, his "role," or the model is simply overly conservative with him, it creates an opportunity for the type of player that Acuña is attempting to become — the player that receives "a little" playtime... until he is forced into receiving "a lot".

So no, this isn’t a guarantee Acuña is about to turn into an average-machine. It’s a projection. But it is the kind of projection that makes fans start asking the dangerous question: what if he deserves more than 175 plate appearances?