It looks like the Phillies got the better bullpen value signing than the NY Mets

The New York Mets may have signed Luke Weaver by paying the NL East tax for him. Two years, $22 million is a perfectly reasonable reliever contract in 2025… right up until you see the Philadelphia Phillies handed the exact same deal to Brad Keller and got a much cleaner “what did we just buy?” profile in return. 

Let’s be honest about why this may sting from the Mets angle: New York made a very “smart team” signing on paper — a former Yankee who’s shown he can handle leverage — and Philly still managed to make it look like the Mets settled for the slightly riskier version of the same idea.

Mets’ Luke Weaver deal already has an uncomfortable NL East comp

Keller’s 2025 line is the separator, and it’s not subtle. He posted a 2.07 ERA in 68 appearances with nearly 70 innings, and the underlying shape of his season says that he’s a real bullpen weapon. Even the Phillies’ own coverage of the move highlights the home run suppression and strong peripheral indicators that tend to carry over better year-to-year than “got some saves.” 

Weaver brought Mets fans what they are sick of hearing about at this time of year: "context" and "conditions". The deal reportedly was pending a physical, which was recently finalized; however, the concern did not go away, it was simply masked by optimism. Weaver's velocity dip has been an ongoing trend. And there have been multiple dissections of Weaver's 2025 data showing that after mid-season injury, the quality of the fastball/cutter mix trended down.

That’s the issue: the Mets are paying for the version of Weaver that can be a monster in leverage, but the most recent version came with warning lights — the velo ticked down, the mix got shakier, and September ended with a 9.64 ERA. And when you’re paying market rate, the “if he rebounds” clause matters. A lot.

The Mets need bullpen certainty. They’re building a staff where every late lead can’t turn into a group therapy session. So we get the impulse, Weaver has shown he can thrive in big spots, and pairing him with another former Yankee in Devin Williams is a real plan. 

But if the question is value, the Phillies probably won this round. Same dollars, same years, and Keller’s 2025 looks like the more stable bet to still be nasty in October, not just a name you talk yourself into during the offseason.