With his NY Mets future uncertain, Pete Alonso's free-agent do-over may hit a snag

This time last year, Pete Alonso's eyes were wide with possibilities. The New York Mets' slugger was dreaming of big dollars despite coming off arguably the worst season of his career. Forced to accept this uncomfortable reality, he answered the bell in 2025 and put up a vintage performance.

Now he'll have the opportunity to seek out his dream deal once more, and this time he'll be coming in with a much stronger position. Despite this, there's a very high likelihood that he's met with a chilly market again.

Seems impossible, right? Unfortunately for Pete, factors beyond his control will be working against him. The culprit that's primarily conspiring against him isn't a team or a rival player, but rather the looming expiration of the league's Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Mets star Pete Alonso might face more disappointment in the face of labor uncertainty

The current CBA is set to expire on December 1, 2026, putting forth a few specific hurdles that free agents like Alonso wouldn't face in normal seasons. For all except the truly elite, the uncertainty may take a huge toll on their markets.

First, what payroll controls will be put in place for 2027 and beyond? As the Los Angeles Dodgers spend their way to another World Series appearance, cries from around the league are growing louder for something to be done to rein in spending.

That could mean a salary cap, or at least more stringent luxury tax penalties. The NBA could serve as a model here with a hard cap once a team passes the final luxury tax apron. In a scenario like this, a team like the Mets would become severely restricted once they cross the final tax line. Another potential pitfall could be an end to deferred money, something that the Dodgers have made infamous.

Understand that this isn't really about preserving competitive balance; it's about wage suppression. Regardless, with uncertainty on the financials, teams are going to be more wary than normal about long-term commitments.

The next part is even worse for Alonso, and that is the threat of a lockout. Entering his age-31 season in 2026, any team that signs Alonso risks not being able to benefit from one of his last remaining prime years if the 2027 season is lost. Given the already dicey history of slugging first basemen signing long-term contracts in their 30s, this will hit him particularly hard.

Lastly, the market simply won't be as robust. Last offseason, a number of teams were in need of help at first base. This go-around, the supply may exceed the demand. Not only was Kazuma Okamoto of the NPB's Yomiuri Giants posted after a stunning reversal, but his countryman Munetaka Murakami will also be joining the fray from outside.

In addition to those two stars, Josh Naylor will draw significant interest and seems to be a priority for the Mariners to retain. On top of that, teams that needed first basemen last season, such as the New York Yankees and Houston Astros, have found other answers, and in the case of the Astros, now may be looking to jettison one such player from their roster.

A shrinking number of homes and more combatants for big dollars doesn't bode well for Alonso; meanwhile, the Mets' eyes could be wandering, looking at the prospect of Tarik Skubal or a number of other stars that might take precedence over retaining the Polar Bear.

You have to feel for Pete. He did everything right and bet on himself, and still might be forced into another short-term deal due to a confluence of factors beyond his control.