A NY Mets-Padres trade that suddenly makes sense with Yu Darvish possibly retiring

At one point, rumors of a New York Mets-San Diego Padres trade were boiling on the hot stove. However, as we've moved into the thick of winter, those rumors haven't completely extinguished but are now more of a nice, slow simmer.

And sometimes that's a good thing. Low and slow makes the best chili to get you through the arctic blast hitting the New York area to close out January. But like burning embers, it only takes a bit of external pressure to stoke the fire into a full-fledged blaze yet again.

In Padres land, that could come in the form of the confusion regarding Yu Darvish and his intentions to retire, or as he says, void his contract. Regardless of what happens, the five-time All-Star wasn't going to be in the 2026 picture as he recovers from elbow surgery. At the same time, the Padres have needed help in the starting rotation, and now may have a future need to consider in addition to a present one.

After landing Freddy Peralta, the Mets have a surplus of big league starters. Could this be the tipping point that gets the wheels moving towards a deal?

A perfect Padres-Mets trade in light of Yu Darvish's situation

The Padres are in a weird place. No one can figure out their ownership situation, and it always seems as if they're on the verge of running out of money. Yet, at the same time, their general manager, A.J. Preller, is perhaps the most aggressive in the game, and somehow continues to make big moves.

With that said, keeping costs low would be preferable for San Diego. So, too, would be holding on to what's left of their barren farm system. The Padres had the best bullpen in the league last year, with a league-leading 3.06 ERA, and could use one of those talented relief arms to land a starter.

The Mets have remade their bullpen with Devin Williams and Luke Weaver coming across town, but both high-leverage arms disappointed last year in the Bronx, and the Mets still had their struggles even with Edwin Diaz and Tyler Rogers in tow. Adding another late-inning option would be ideal.

This ideal trade would see New York send lefty David Peterson to San Diego in exchange for Jeremiah Estrada. Estrada, a 27-year-old right-hander, was a workhorse last year, making 77 appearances and logging 73 innings. He's got a high-90s fastball, a pretty decent slider, and an absolutely lethal splitter that generated a ridiculous 47.5% whiff rate. That arsenal led to him finishing third among big league relievers with a 13.32 K/9 mark. He's not invisible, but his 3.45 ERA last season was solid, and he's still ascending. Lastly, he comes with four years of team control, making him an affordable asset to continue building out the bullpen with.

As for the Padres' side of things, Peterson scratches their need for a starter, and with an $8.1 million salary for 2026, he's cheap. They have Michael King to lead their rotation, so a solid mid-rotation arm fits the bill. That's Peterson. On top of that, their only left-handed option to start is JP Sears, and his 5.04 ERA. Peterson represents a significant upgrade there.

Peterson doesn't address the need beyond 2026, but if San Diego likes him, they can extend him at a relatively team-friendly rate. If not, they cut bait and look at what the market presents next winter.

It might not be the Mason Miller-type blockbuster that fans had hoped for in mid-December, but both sides would get better as a result. As an added bonus, the Mets jettison a piece that would probably walk after the 2026 season and get an asset that can be a building block for years to come. That's a big win.