NY Mets would need to include one more top prospect in mock Red Sox trade

Bleacher Report recently published an article looking at ten mock trades involving Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran. Their seventh trade in the article involved the New York Mets. In this trade, they have the Mets acquiring Duran while sending corner infielder Mark Vientos and top prospects Brandon Sproat and Jesus Baez. But the uncomfortable truth is that if the Mets wanted to acquire Duran with a package like this, they would likely have to include 2024 first-round pick Carson Benge.

The Mets are going to need to give up one of their newer top prospects to land Jarren Duran

Now, Mets fans likely wouldn’t be too enthusiastic about trading their most recent first-round outfielder because it hasn’t panned out too well the last time the Mets did that. However, more importantly, Benge has completely demolished High-A pitching. The top outfield prospect is batting .301/.418/.488 with a .417 wOBA and 183 wRC+ in 201 plate appearances. He is hitting for decent power, with four home runs and a .187 isolated slugging percentage. Benge is walking 15.9% of the time and has a strikeout percentage below 20% at 19.4%.

Benge is one of the best hitters at High-A, ranking fifth in wRC+, 13th in OPS, and 16th in wOBA. He also has the 27th-best BB:K ratio. MLB Pipeline currently ranks Benge in their top 100 at #88. He is the Mets’ second-best position player prospect right now behind Jett Williams, and the Mets would have to include someone of that caliber to headline a Jarren Duran trade.

At least the mock proposal included a prospect who isn’t at his lowest value. Jesus Baez is having a solid season, batting .273/.359/.400 with a .357 wOBA and 124 wRC+. Although the 20-year-old infielder only has five home runs in 192 plate appearances between A-Ball and High-A, Baez has drawn plenty of walks with an 11.5% BB% and has a strong 16.1% walk rate. Baez ranks seventh in the Mets’ farm system per MLB Pipeline and third per Baseball America but isn’t in the top 100 of either list.

There are two players in this trade whose value is at its lowest. One is pitching prospect Brandon Sproat. After a strong 2024 campaign, Sproat has struggled mightily in 2025, working to a 6.02 ERA, 5.04 FIP, and 1.47 WHIP. His 10.7% walk rate is about average for Triple-A, but his 16.6% K% is a massive fall from the 28.3% K% he had in 2024. His whiff rate also sits at an unimpressive 22.7%. The only major positives are that he still is topping out at 100 MPH and hasn’t gotten hit too hard, with a 0.78 HR/9 and 4.3% barrel percentage.

Mark Vientos hasn’t done much in 2025 to garner much interest in trade. He is only batting .230/.298/.380 with a .300 wOBA and 93 wRC+ in 208 plate appearances. That’s a far cry from the .266/.322/.516 triple-slash, and 133 wRC+ with 27 home runs in 454 plate appearances Vientos had in 2024. The only positives are that Vientos has increased his walk rate from 7.3% to 8.2% and lowered his K% from 29.7% to 23.6%.

Even Vientos’ 2024 season had its red flags. His mediocre walk and strikeout rates weren’t his only poor plate discipline stats. Vientos was in the bottom fourth percentile of whiff rate at 34.4% and the bottom 23rd percentile of chase rate at 32.3%. While his .331 xwOBA was solid, it fell far from his actual wOBA and was the eighth-worst gap between xwOBA and wOBA. He also has to hit, as his defense at third base is quite poor, and he has -14 defensive runs saved and -13 outs above average since the start of 2024. Now, he’s on the injured list with a hamstring injury, further compromising his value.

Meanwhile, Duran was one of baseball’s best outfielders in 2024, putting up a 120 wRC+, .843 OPS, .357 wOBA, had an astounding +23 defensive runs saved and +10 outs above average, and had +6.7 fWAR with the Boston Red Sox. He’s off to a solid start this year and is slashing .274/.323/.423 with a 105 wRC+ throughout his first 297 plate appearances. He’s done a lot better as of recently with a .920 OPS, .397 wOBA, and 153 wRC+ since May 15th. The only outfielders in baseball with more fWAR than Duran’s +7.8 mark since the start of last season are Aaron Judge and current Met Juan Soto.

On top of that, Duran isn’t just a rental. He doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2028 season. Duran has an $8 million club option for 2026, which is a steal, and then hits arbitration for the 2027 and 2028 campaigns. So not only does Duran have multiple seasons under contract, but it comes at a relatively low cost, payroll-wise.

It may hurt to let Benge go in a trade for Duran, but acquiring Duran should hurt. He is an extremely productive player with multiple years of cheap control remaining. He’s not going to come cheap. Two players who are in the midst of their worst seasons as a professional yet aren’t going to cut it.