It sounds like NY Mets manager Carlos Mendoza will have a tight leash to begin 2026

Carlos Mendoza is getting the benefit of the doubt from the New York Mets hierarchy above him. As poorly as the year finished, he’s one of a small number of coaches returning for 2026. Two seasons that couldn’t have been much more different if they tried, even so far as to come down to tie-breakers for the final Wild Card spot, there’s plenty of reason to question Mendoza’s ability to lead this team.

The NY Post’s Mike Puma went into what led to the ouster of so many coaches with one former coach suggesting it came from an angry owner, Steve Cohen. Another ex-Mets staff member suggested Mendoza isn’t off the hook quite yet for 2025. “If they are 10-20 at the end of April next year, [Mendoza] will be gone, unfortunately.” was told to Puma.

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza is sitting on a hot seat

A 10-20 finish after 30 games seems a bit abrupt to fire a manager entering his third year. Couldn’t they crawl back out from the early hole? You’d think but just looking at the standings on May 1 from this past year, we see some of the league’s worst. The 15-16 Toronto Blue Jays were the worst to make the playoffs. It’s amazing how despite a 162 game season, a slow start can spoil your chances entirely.

The Mets were 21-11 on May 1 of this past year. The exact opposite of what would allegedly get Mendoza fired, the strong start was more deception than perception. The team was 15-15 on May 1, 2024. Even though it’s a difference of only 5 games, there’s a wide gap between an early .333 winning percentage versus .500.

If Mendoza is truly on a smoldering seat to begin the year, it probably gives us some hints as to what the next coaching hires will look like. The bench coach will need to be someone who can replace Mendoza which doesn’t exactly set him up for a comfortable situation. The hitting coach (definitely not coaches) should be someone whom the team has faith can last through another managerial change. For the pitching coach, the logical choice remains a promotion for Desi Druschel. They can’t go off hiring a new person only for the next manager to want to pick his staff yet again.

The easiest solution for the Mets is to not be one of the worst teams in baseball to begin 2026. A 10-20 start is more than fair. Only the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies had fewer than 10 wins after 30 games this past season. The Mets would have to be an outright disaster to begin the 2026 campaign for the rip cord to get pulled so suddenly. A more plausible scenario could be where the Mets sit in June. Even just having a losing record or trailing for a playoff spot by a large enough margin could be enough to ignite the owner into asking for a sudden change.