The most discouraging stat the NY Mets can’t ignore from Kodai Senga’s rehab start

A 3.2 inning, 2 earned runs (1 unearned), 5 strikeouts, and 2 walks wasn’t the most disastrous result Kodai Senga could have given the New York Mets in his Thursday night rehab outing. One number from the abbreviated appearance stood out above the others.

When results are what should be the biggest driving factor, you can overlook some aspects. In this case, with poor totals already making themselves noticed, the most discouraging stat of all from Senga’s rehab outing was easily the number of strikes he threw. In a major league game, you’re not going to be able to escape with 41 strikes on 80 pitches. Major league hitters will make you pay in ways a Triple-A hitter won’t.

Kodai Senga looks far away from being an effective pitcher for the Mets again

The results weren’t much different for Senga in his first rehab start down in Single-A except he wasn’t as wild. Walking only one in 3.1 innings of work, he still allowed a pair of earned runs and was lashed around for 4 hits while striking out only two. That game featured 64 pitches and 37 strikes. A little more comfortable, Senga’s inability to find the zone has often been one of the consistent critiques of his.

A league-high 14 wild pitches in 2023 as a rookie, he also had 77 walks. The 4.2 BB/9 was high yet not outrageous enough when it came with 10.9 K/9. A slight decline in strikeouts to begin the year down to 10.4 K/9, the more alarming number was the 5.9 BB/9. Paired with 2.3 HR/9, we can see how a mistake can quickly unravel.

If you had to guess without looking, how many starts would you say Senga made? The answer is five. Two abbreviated yet acceptable ones followed by three disasters, these rehab appearances are too closely resembling the bad ones minus the run total allowed.

Rehab results can be tricky as it’s often more about testing things than it is padding stats. An excellent start from a rehabbing pitcher is always promising while a poor one can be written off. However, when all of the starts go poorly and it’s a coin flip if a ball is a strike or not, you have to wonder.

Last week we asked a question of whether or not the Mets can expect anything out of Senga for the remainder of the year. His rehab was officially underway and after two appearances, we’re no closer to having a positive answer. No one should sound the alarm bells just yet, but to think he needed some rest and recovery would have been foolish. He’s not the ace-caliber pitcher the Mets had in the past.

Christian Scott has already made more starts and Austin Warren is approaching Senga’s innings total on the year. Something tells me Senga is going to get lost on the IL this season and we’ll ask many of these same questions again in the offseason.

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