Kodai Senga's rehab is set and there's a big question for the NY Mets

Kodai Senga landed on the IL with lumbar spine inflammation. The convenience of the injury for the New York Mets didn’t go overlooked by the beat who laughed off the solution to an unsolvable problem.

If Senga wasn’t willing to get demoted, the only way to remove him from the roster would have been to release him or find an injury. They went with the latter, buying a little more time into turning his career around. It’s fair to say nearly every athlete is walking around with some form of injury. Senga’s was used as a breather, but that will soon end. He starts his 30-day rehab process on Friday May 22.

Anyone who has experienced Senga knows the card is always subject to change. A rehab start means nothing unless he gets through it fine. A setback always lurks. The kind of pitcher who wouldn’t appear to transition well into a relief role, Senga feels a bit starter-or-bust for the Mets. Do we ever see him throw another game in a Mets uniform?

Can the Mets actually expect anything out of Kodai Senga this year?

A late June return is now on the table, but even that takes the optimistic route. The need for Senga changed with Clay Holmes going down. There’s no longer a cluster of starting pitchers on the roster. The team has dipped further into the depth chart. They don’t need the ace version of Senga, just the lighter version works.

Based on where the Mets are in the standings right now, buried under the pile of bones in the basement, it’ll take a good pair of running sneakers to become them trade deadline buyers. Several of their best trade chips to deal away are starters. Undergoing a full-blown sell-off would have them moving on from Freddy Peralta and Holmes if anyone believes he’ll be back in August. A taker on David Peterson could emerge if someone dares to pay him the remainder of his salary and get a sneak preview of what he may offer them next year.

It's promising for Senga, who last pitched on April 26, to begin his rehab a little under a month after. There's still a long road ahead for him. Fans aren't exactly jumping for joy for his return either.

The Mets have gained a reason to put Senga on the mound for competitive purposes because of the compiling injuries they have. It may end up as a chance only to fool another team into finding a reason to believe in him. No one bit in the offseason. Fewer nibbles are expected moving forward. Senga would be a cheap trade deadline pickup for any team. The Mets are still hoping they can at least gain some ground in the NL Wild Card hunt and have him turn around his season.

On track to pitch for the Mets again, which version shows up is the bigger unknown. There’s nothing to indicate Senga will go back to his 2023/early 2025 form. The Mets may still prefer to lose with him than without because the latter just extends the question mark and offers no resolution.

Some Kodai Senga numbers to consider

Statistically, Senga's Ghost Fork has remained a dominant pitch with batters hitting .148 against it. Unfortunately, his fastball and cutter have batting averages of over .300 against him. Forget about the sweeper. Hitters have a .556 average against that this year.

He has one of the biggest differences between actual ERA (9.00) and expected (4.66). These positive predictive stats tell us he should be better.

There doesn't appear to be any easy solution to get more from him as a starter. By inning, his 7.20 ERA in the first inning, 9.00 in the second, and 20.25 in the third gives no clear indication of a need for an opener. An 11.57 ERA in innings 1-3 and 3.00 ERA in innings 4-6 just tells us there are days where he's on and days where he's off.

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