Former NY Mets coach is rising to the challenge but it may be a mirage

When evaluating the NL East landscape over the offseason, it was clear that the Atlanta Braves were a step behind the New York Mets on paper. The Mets' bitter rival needed much better injury luck than it had a year ago, and it still could have used another starting pitcher.

Atlanta never did add that other big league-caliber starter, and a wave of injuries washed over its starting rotation, making former Mets' pitching guru Jeremy Hefner's life much harder in his first season with the Braves.

Through April 6, he seems to be passing the test with flying colors. The Braves' pitching staff has owns a 2.23 ERA, which currently leads the major leagues. Isolating the starters, Atlanta's unit comes in sixth with a 3.02 mark.

The Mets, of course, are no slouches. They trail Atlanta in terms of ERA both among their starters and their pitching staff as a whole. New York comes third in staff ERA at 2.53, and the Mets' starters own a 3.13 ERA, which ranks 10th.

Hefner's doing a great job, but can he truly keep it up, or are there already some warning signs that the early returns the Braves have received are a mirage?

Ex-Mets' pitching coach Jeremy Hefner might soon see his Braves' pitching staff come back to Earth

Looking at the Braves' staff overall, it's important to separate the final result from the process that got them there. When one does that, things start to look a bit less impressive.

The biggest factors that contribute to success are strikeouts, walks, and groundballs. The first two help us isolate what's exactly in a pitcher's control, while the third adds additional context to how well the hurlers are limiting damage.

The Braves staff owns a 22.2% strikeout rate, which ranks 19th in baseball. Their 6.2% walk rate is elite, coming in second overall. As for groundballs, Atlanta hurlers have gotten grounders at a 39.8% clip, which ranks 23rd.

The control is nice, but they're still in a danger zone, and the stat that predicts regression is the batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The Braves currently own a .218 BABIP, which is the lowest rate in the league.

BABIP takes a very long time to stabilize, and the average is roughly .300. While there can be some fluctuations, the Braves aren't going to continue to post such an elite rate, and once that number regresses to the mean, they'll find more base runners clogging up the bases, leading to more runs allowed.

We might already be seeing Atlanta come back to earth. The Los Angeles Angels battered Braves ace Chris Sale on April 6, chasing him after four innings but not before tagging him for six earned runs. If Sale isn't pitching well, the track record of the rest of the starters is something that can't be relied on and could sink Atlanta.

All in all, it's too early to tell whether or not Hefner is back to pulling rabbits out of his hat with questionable arms, or if the Braves' pitching is on the verge of an implosion. All we can say is that the results have been very good so far, but there are quite a few underlying causes for concern. With all that said, it will be important to monitor if and when they come back to Earth and whether or not that happens before their reinforcements are expected back at some point over the summer. Stay tuned.