NY Mets fans already know the projected stats for Devin Williams are wrong

If you’re a big fan of the New York Mets, then you’ve probably already read the FanGraphs projection for Devin Williams and instinctively said, “Yeah…no.” Not because projections are useless. Because reliever projections are basically a polite guess playing dress up, and Williams is the kind of arm that should make the model look nervous.

FanGraphs’ Steamer line has Williams posting 64 innings, a 3.14 ERA, and 32 saves with the Mets. That’s fine. It’s also the kind of “let’s not get yelled at later” forecast you give a volatile reliever coming off a weird season. The problem is that Mets fans just watched Williams have a weird season.

Mets reliever Devin Williams is the type of arm projections can miss

Williams' 2025 season with the Yankees was marked by a 4.79 ERA over 67 appearances (62 IP) as well as losing the closer's job at times throughout the season. While the ERA does appear to be rather poor, Williams had a 3.11 xERA which indicates a high degree of luck/variance. Additionally, while Williams did miss bats at an elite rate (13.06 K/9), the idea that he suddenly forgot how to pitch is simply not supported.

Here’s where Mets context matters: Williams isn’t arriving as a mystery box. He came back from a back injury in 2024 and was vintage down the stretch: 1.25 ERA, 14 saves, 38 strikeouts in 21 2/3 innings.

Add that to the shift in ballparks, it's more important than some want to acknowledge. In terms of Statcast's 3 year running average for each ballpark (Yankee Stadium 2023-25; Citi Field 2023-25), Yankee Stadium is a 119 HR park while Citi Field is a 104 HR park.

While the overall park environment may be slightly less forgiving in the Bronx (100) than in Queens (98), Citi Field isn’t as easy a place to hit home runs. That's not to say things will suddenly be easier for Williams, but there will definitely be fewer nights when the ball will leave the yard on a good pitch, and fewer bloop and blast innings where a weird swing kills your ERA.

So when Steamer spits out 3.14, Mets fans aren’t offended — they’re just not buying it as a projected outcome. The real question isn’t “will he be last year or elite again?” It’s how quickly do the Mets get the normal Devin Williams back — the one who’s built a 2.45 career ERA and has spent most of his prime making hitters look silly? If that guy shows up in Queens, the projection is going to be the thing that looks wrong. Not him.