NY Mets can expect cobwebs by the end of the projected contract for inconsistent ace

In a surprise to absolutely nobody, the New York Mets are projected to be frontrunners in the starting pitching market this offseason. After a disastrous second-half collapse in which Mets starters combined for a 5.31 ERA, the team is expected to be aggressive this offseason in search for an ace as they look to retool the rotation that couldn't come through down the stretch.

One of the names linked to the Mets is that of Dylan Cease, whom Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicts will receive a contract of around six years and $187 million. However, Cease is a walking red flag, and a six-year contract emphasizes the concerns many have with him.

The Mets should "Cease" the idea of giving a long-term contract to one of baseball's most inconsistent pitchers.

To put that inconsistency into words, Cease is what some might refer to as an "even year merchant." In 2022 and 2024, he was tough as nails, earning himself second place in Cy Young voting in 2022, and fourth place in 2024. In those two years, he combined for a 2.85 ERA and a 10.5 bWAR. For context, the only pitcher with a better bWAR in those two specific combined years is Zack Wheeler with 10.7.

In 2023 and 2025, though, Cease combined for just 3.3 bWAR and a 4.57 ERA. Sure, his xERA may have been 3.47, meaning a lot of his struggles may have been a point of poor defense behind him or plain old bad luck. However, after the year the Mets just went through with their rotation, there's no room for "ifs, ands, or buts," especially when a six-year contract worth over $31 million annually is on the table.

Although wildly inconsistent, Cease has shown several patterns throughout his career. He's always been an efficient swing-and-miss guy, consistently in the upper echelon of major league pitchers in whiff and strikeout rate. However, he has struggled with his walk rate over the years, frequently ranking among the lowest in MLB. As good as it is for Cease to effectively produce whiffs, walking batters at the rate he has over his career is a recipe for disaster.

When Cease is at the top of his game, he's arguably the best, but he hasn't shown enough consistency to warrant a six-year deal, especially not of that value. Even if he has a good few years, he's entering his 30s, and he hasn't done anything to show he can sustain his peaks; the longevity that would be asked of Cease on such a contract would be the gamble of all gambles.

Simply put, it's not worth having a Cy Young-ceiling player in your rotation when his floor is as low as some of the league's worst. Plus, who knows what that contract will look like by the time he's 36? The Mets' best interest in terms of finding a top starter might lie in the trade market rather than free agency.