NY Mets fans should have the same thought seeing top free agent SP salary projections

The starting pitching market this offseason looks like a luxury auction that no New York Mets fan wants to attend. Even solid, dependable arms are sporting price tags that make you blink twice, and the numbers continue to climb. For a front office trying to maximize value, seeing every top-tier option pegged with eye-popping contracts is enough to make anyone question whether free agency is really the smartest route.

It’s not that the pitchers aren’t good; some of them could help any rotation. The problem is how much the ledger would groan for even upgrades that come with red flags. According to Jim Bowden’s salary projections in The Athletic, the going rates for these arms are staggering, and for the Mets, the question isn’t which arm to sign, but whether it’s worth paying astronomical sums when there might be a sleeker, more strategic path to a true front-line starter.

Sky-high starting pitching prices leave Mets fans thinking trade is the only way

A look at the free agent market confirms that hope in that direction comes with a hefty price tag. After reviewing contract projections, it’s clear these pitchers aren’t worth the deals, which makes the trade market stand out as a more sensible option.

Just last season, Max Fried locked up an eight-year deal at just over $27 million per year, while Garrett Crochet was secured by Boston for six years and $170 million. Now imagine seeing pitchers with red flags projected to land north of $30 million annually. These numbers make the case for caution obvious.

Free agent options like Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez illustrate the risk. Cease has posted an ERA north of 4.50 in two of his last three seasons, while Valdez, a 31-year-old contact pitcher, might struggle behind a Mets defense that ranked middle of the road last season. Paying north of $30 million for either pitcher seems like a gamble, especially when more controllable alternatives exist.

Zac Gallen presents a slightly different concern. Penciled in at over $25 million per year, his ERA has steadily climbed over the last three seasons, finishing 2025 at 4.83. Even without the extreme price tags of Cease or Valdez, his trend suggests caution for a front office wary of overpaying for performance that doesn’t match the contract.

The trade market, however, gives the Mets realistic solutions. Names like Tarik Skubal and Hunter Greene have been floated, and with arguably the best farm system in baseball and an owner like Steve Cohen willing to spend wisely, leveraging trade assets to land a front-line starter makes far more sense than overpaying in free agency.

Given these numbers, it’s time for Mets fans and the front office to actively champion the trade market. Prioritize exploring trade opportunities for a true front-line starter and resist the urge to overpay in free agency. This strategic focus will give the Mets the best chance at value and stability at the top of the rotation.