The David Stearns reunion that suddenly feels less likely to occur with the NY Mets

As the New York Mets balance their quest for starting pitching upgrades with other needs on the roster, fans and pundits alike are likely going to draw lines from David Stearns to his former organization, the Milwaukee Brewers.

The Brewers have a long history of churning out front-line starters seemingly out of nowhere. While most of the attention has been on ace Freddy Peralta, who is expected to be available on the trade block, the free-agent market presents another top-of-the-rotation arm from Milwaukee who has long been linked to the Mets.

That hurler would be 32-year-old righty Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff's extensive injury history over the last few years has made him a potential bargain option. The risk would be high, but the reward would also be. After missing all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery, Woodruff came back in 2025 and posted a 3.20 ERA over 12 starts and 64.2 innings. The underlying data suggests he was even better, with a 2.18 xERA that nearly mirrors his 2.28 actual ERA from 2023.

A short-term, incentive-laden deal for Woodruff might not have been the only move needed in the rotation, but it would have given the Mets a chance at ace-like upside while leaving more than enough funds available to pursue some of the market's biggest fish. Unfortunately, the Brewers are hitting him with the qualifying offer, likely stopping any chance of a reunion with Stearns in its tracks.

The Brewers tagging Brandon Woodruff with the qualifying offer essentially kills the Mets' dream of a David Stearns Reunion

Should Woodruff reject the qualifying offer, he'll still have to deal with the implications that designation will have on his market. The penalties are not standard and instead depend on a team's status with regard to the luxury tax.

The Mets, as a repeat tax offender, face the stiffest penalties, losing their second and fifth round picks plus $1 million in international bonus pool money for signing a qualifying offer free agent. The loss of draft picks would continue if multiple QO-rejecting free agents are signed.

The club has worked hard to build a highly-regarded farm system, and their trade deadline wheeling and dealing shows how much they value their top prospects. That means the idea of losing two picks plus some cash to spend on international amateurs would be a bridge too far for a guy like Woodruff, especially when there's a non-zero chance that they end up landing another QO guy, which would hit their draft pick cache even harder.

At the end of the day, Woodruff would've been a nice upside play, but now the cost outside of dollars is real. Steve Cohen is rich enough to keep the greenbacks flowing into the team's coffers, but penalties like these are specifically designed to stop owners like him in their tracks.

In the case of Woodruff, the restrictions will have done their job, and the chance that his next home is in Queens is now essentially zero.