NY Mets could pursue a bad contract swap to replace Pete Alonso if he bolts elsewhere

The offseason is a delicate balancing act. One must come up with contingencies for their contingencies as the dominoes can fall at breakneck speed. Navigating that process won't be easy for David Stearns when it comes to Pete Alonso.

Retaining Alonso is probably the best bet for the Mets, but that won't come easy. Stearns will have a price, both in dollars and years, that he won't budge from. For his part, Alonso is shooting for the stars with a seven-year ask that he won't move on from until it's abundantly clear that such an offer isn't in the cards. Negotiations will likely move at a glacial pace.

The first base free-agent market is relatively flush, with Josh Naylor and Japanese stars Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto highlighting the cream of the crop in terms of Alonso replacements. However, assuming the Mets and Alonso engage in another long standoff, the herd could thin as these stars don't wait around for a resolution.

Fortunately, a creative bad contract for bad contract swap could gift the Mets a prime Alonso alternative should they come to the conclusion that Pete's return isn't in the cards.

The Mets could look to the Houston Astros for a creative Pete Alonso replacement

Aside from Alonso and first base, upgrading the rotation is one of the club's biggest priorities, if not the biggest priority. That could force one of New York's disappointing veteran arms out of the rotation as a result.

The Houston Astros will be scouring the market for rotation upgrades right alongside the Mets. They're set to lose co-ace Framber Valdez, but could use depth throughout as well. Unfortunately for them, they'll have a limited budget to work with, thanks in part to the three-year, $60 million contract they doled out to first baseman Christian Walker last winter.

Walker was a major disappointment for them, slashing just .238/.297/.421 in 2025. Ridding themselves of his contract is a major priority, and that's exactly where the Mets come in.

MLB Trade Rumors Nick Deeds (subscription required) threw out the idea of Houston calling up the Mets about swapping Walker for either Sean Manaea or Kodai Senga. Walker is a first baseman, but why would the Mets settle for one who posted a 99 wRC+ and is owed $40 million over the next two years?

There are a few reasons, actually, but first, it's important to define which starter the Astros would really target. Of the two, Manaea makes the most sense. Assuming Valdez leaves in free agency, the Astros would be without a southpaw in their rotation. Manaea fits that bill for them.

As for Walker, while the overall numbers left something to be desired, a closer look shows there was more going on. The 34-year-old posted a .799 OPS in the second half and saw his isolated slugging percentage jump from .145 to .238 down the stretch. He hit 15 of his 27 homers in the second half, despite that stretch containing just 64 games compared to the 90 he played prior to the All-Star break.

There's more here than just a second-half surge, though. Walker was limited by a sore oblique in spring training. While the Astros reported it was nothing serious, their injury track record can't be trusted. The club misdiagnosed injuries to players like Yordan Alvarez and Jake Meyers and fired their head athletic trainer last month.

Walker suffered an oblique injury back in 2021 that limited him to 115 games in what was the worst season of his career. In 2022, he rebounded and hit a career-high 36 dingers. Pure speculation, but there's more than enough reason to suspect that maybe Walker was hurt more than the team suspected, and once he finally healed, he took off in the second half.

Such a trade would be a gamble for the Mets, but one that could pay off. The deal would likely be a straight-up one-for-one swap, and as a result, they'd save about $4 million against the luxury tax over the next two years.

Better Pete Alonso alternatives may exist, but if David Stearns finds himself in a bind while playing the waiting game, calling up the Astros to discuss a Manaea-for-Walker swap isn't the worst idea in the world.